Mastercard Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MA Stock | USD 500.75 -2.01 -0.40% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Mastercard. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mastercard on the next trading day is expected to be 500.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 368.64.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Mastercard observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Mastercard observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Mastercard is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mastercard on the next trading day is expected to be 500.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 71.82 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 368.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mastercard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mastercard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mastercard | Mastercard Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Mastercard's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 498.70 and upside near 501.84.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mastercard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mastercard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.8047 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.2481 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 368.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mastercard
Mastercard's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Mastercard often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Mastercard Related Equities
These stocks are related to Mastercard within the Financials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Mastercard's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mastercard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Mastercard stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Mastercard.
| Accumulation Distribution | 30989.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.35 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 501.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 501.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -2.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -2.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.62 |
Mastercard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mastercard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Mastercard's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mastercard
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Mastercard can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Mastercard Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Mastercard matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 898 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.5 B |