Littelfuse Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

LFUS Stock  USD 332.99  -3.09  -0.92%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Littelfuse summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Littelfuse on the next trading day is expected to be 333.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 399.51.When Littelfuse prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Littelfuse trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Littelfuse observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Littelfuse's Double Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Littelfuse works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Littelfuse on the next trading day is expected to be 333.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.77 , mean absolute percentage error of 72.42 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 399.51 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Littelfuse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Littelfuse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Littelfuse  Littelfuse Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Littelfuse uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
332.99
331.36
Downside
333.98
Expected Value
336.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Littelfuse stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Littelfuse stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.2517
MADMean absolute deviation6.7714
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0215
SAESum of the absolute errors399.5133
When Littelfuse prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Littelfuse trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Littelfuse observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Littelfuse

Investors evaluating Littelfuse at any level need to understand the significance of Littelfuse's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in Littelfuse Stock price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.

Littelfuse Related Equities

The following equities are related to Littelfuse within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Littelfuse against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Littelfuse Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to Littelfuse help investors evaluate how the stock tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting Littelfuse positions.

Littelfuse Risk Indicators

The assessment of Littelfuse's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure Littelfuse's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Littelfuse

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Littelfuse can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Littelfuse Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Littelfuse can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding24.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments563.7 M

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