LCNB Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

LCNB Stock  USD 15.15  -0.04  -0.26%   
LCNB Corporation's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCNB Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 14.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.01.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past LCNB observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older LCNB Corporation observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for LCNB Corporation is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for LCNB - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When LCNB prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in LCNB price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of LCNB.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LCNB Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 14.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.01 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LCNB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LCNB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates LCNB's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 13.29 and upside around 16.54 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
15.15
14.92
Expected Value
16.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LCNB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LCNB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0212
MADMean absolute deviation0.2168
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0066
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past LCNB observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older LCNB Corporation observations.

Other Forecasting Options for LCNB

The movement of LCNB price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in LCNB Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.

LCNB Related Equities

The following equities are related to LCNB within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing LCNB against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LCNB Market Strength Events

Investors use market strength indicators for LCNB to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of LCNB Corporation positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.

LCNB Risk Indicators

A careful analysis of LCNB's basic risk indicators provides context for understanding the risk environment surrounding lcnb stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting LCNB's future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for LCNB

Coverage intensity for LCNB Corporation matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

LCNB Short Properties

Short-interest signals around LCNB Corporation can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments250.6 M

More Resources for LCNB Stock Analysis

A full view of LCNB is built from its financial statements and trend data. Financial ratios summarize performance across earnings and efficiency. The data reflects LCNB's reported financial activity across periods. The following reports provide structured context for LCNB Corporation Stock: