Kingsway Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KFS Stock | USD 13.19 0.20 1.49% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kingsway Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.03. Kingsway Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Kingsway Financial's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 1 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.319 |
Using Kingsway Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kingsway Financial Services from the perspective of Kingsway Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kingsway Financial using Kingsway Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kingsway using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kingsway Financial's stock price.
Kingsway Financial Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Kingsway Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kingsway Financial Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kingsway Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kingsway Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kingsway Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kingsway Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.03. Kingsway Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 13.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kingsway Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kingsway contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kingsway Financial Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kingsway Financial trading at USD 13.19, that is roughly USD 0.008161 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kingsway Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kingsway Financial Services options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kingsway Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kingsway Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kingsway Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kingsway Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kingsway Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kingsway Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kingsway Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kingsway. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kingsway Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kingsway price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kingsway using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kingsway charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kingsway Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kingsway Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kingsway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kingsway Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kingsway Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kingsway Financial | Kingsway Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kingsway Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kingsway Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kingsway Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.04 and 16.36, respectively. We have considered Kingsway Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kingsway Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kingsway Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3209 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0332 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2464 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.0301 |
Predictive Modules for Kingsway Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kingsway Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kingsway Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kingsway Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kingsway Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kingsway Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kingsway Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kingsway Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kingsway Financial's historical news coverage. Kingsway Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.03 and 16.35, respectively. We have considered Kingsway Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kingsway Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kingsway Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kingsway Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kingsway Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kingsway Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kingsway Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 3.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.19 | 13.19 | 0.00 |
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Kingsway Financial Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Kingsway Financial is traded for 13.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Kingsway is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Kingsway Financial is about 5851.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.18. About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.42. Kingsway Financial last dividend was issued on the 11th of June 2009. The entity had 1:4 split on the 5th of July 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kingsway Financial to cross-verify your projections.Kingsway Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kingsway Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kingsway Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Kingsway Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kingsway Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIIO | Roboai Inc | 0.04 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 8.62 | (16.18) | 75.86 | |
| MLR | Miller Industries | (0.34) | 4 per month | 1.88 | (0.04) | 2.66 | (2.49) | 7.96 | |
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.14 | (7.48) | 34.74 | |
| HYLN | Hyliion Holdings Corp | (1.15) | 6 per month | 4.73 | 0.01 | 6.19 | (7.17) | 20.27 | |
| MNRO | Monro Muffler Brake | (0.34) | 20 per month | 3.44 | 0.08 | 5.20 | (3.62) | 20.48 | |
| PACK | Ranpak Holdings Corp | (0.34) | 8 per month | 4.18 | (0) | 5.25 | (4.59) | 22.28 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | 0.05 | 6 per month | 2.80 | 0.07 | 6.38 | (3.63) | 25.66 | |
| ARKO | Arko Corp | (0.09) | 8 per month | 2.59 | 0.09 | 5.91 | (2.93) | 18.08 | |
| JOUT | Johnson Outdoors | 1.54 | 15 per month | 1.50 | 0.04 | 4.30 | (2.52) | 8.29 | |
| BWMX | Betterware de Mxico | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.21 | 3.90 | (2.22) | 13.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kingsway Financial
For every potential investor in Kingsway, whether a beginner or expert, Kingsway Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kingsway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kingsway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kingsway Financial's price trends.Kingsway Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kingsway Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kingsway Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kingsway Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kingsway Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kingsway Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kingsway Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kingsway Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kingsway Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1161.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.20) |
Kingsway Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kingsway Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kingsway Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kingsway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Variance | 9.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kingsway Financial
The number of cover stories for Kingsway Financial depends on current market conditions and Kingsway Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kingsway Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kingsway Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kingsway Financial Short Properties
Kingsway Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kingsway Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kingsway Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kingsway Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kingsway Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.6 M |
Additional Tools for Kingsway Stock Analysis
When running Kingsway Financial's price analysis, check to measure Kingsway Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kingsway Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Kingsway Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kingsway Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kingsway Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kingsway Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.