KeyCorp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| KEY Stock | USD 19.88 -0.12 -0.60% |
KeyCorp's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.88.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past KeyCorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older KeyCorp observations. KeyCorp's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.88 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KeyCorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KeyCorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KeyCorp | KeyCorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for KeyCorp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 18.24 and upside near 21.50.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KeyCorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KeyCorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2813 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.8764 |
Other Forecasting Options for KeyCorp
Analyzing KeyCorp's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in KeyCorp's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.KeyCorp Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of KeyCorp within the Financials space and offer context for ranking and strength. Looking at KeyCorp's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KeyCorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for KeyCorp stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade KeyCorp.
KeyCorp Risk Indicators
Assessing KeyCorp's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting KeyCorp's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for KeyCorp
Story coverage around KeyCorp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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KeyCorp Short Properties
A short-interest review of KeyCorp provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.4 B |