Intuit Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

INTU Stock  USD 455.15  8.36  1.87%   
Intuit Inc's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intuit Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 455.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 714.40.When Intuit Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Intuit Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Intuit observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing projections for Intuit Inc are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Intuit works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intuit Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 455.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 249.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 714.40 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intuit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intuit's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Intuit Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 452.43 and upside around 458.88 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
455.15
452.43
Downside
455.65
Expected Value
458.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intuit stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intuit stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2444
MADMean absolute deviation12.1085
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0255
SAESum of the absolute errors714.4021
When Intuit Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Intuit Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Intuit observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Intuit

The price trajectory of Intuit is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Intuit Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.

Intuit Related Equities

The following equities are related to Intuit within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Intuit against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Intuit Market Strength Events

Understanding the market strength of Intuit stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Intuit Inc with greater precision.

Intuit Risk Indicators

Reviewing Intuit's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Intuit's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Intuit

A coverage review of Intuit Inc helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.

Intuit Short Properties

A short-interest review of Intuit Inc helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding283 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.6 B

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