Ingram Micro Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| INGM Stock | 22.23 0.77 3.59% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.406 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7108 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2195 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.5708 | Wall Street Target Price 25.6742 |
This view maps Ingram Micro Holding attention shifts to recent price behavior and peer activity. Options positioning and short interest are used here to outline sentiment for Ingram Micro.
Short Interest Detail for Ingram Micro
Short interest in Ingram Micro is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
200 Day MA 20.987 | Short Percent 0.1568 | Short Ratio 8.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 21.5674 |
RSI Trend for Ingram
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.44.Price Response to Hype - Ingram Micro Holding
Ingram Micro's news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around Ingram. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between Ingram Micro's news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
Ingram Micro Implied Volatility | 1.34 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, Ingram Micro's implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into Ingram Micro's future price action.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.44.Ingram Micro after-hype prediction price | $ 22.48 |
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Ingram Micro. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Reference for the current Ingram contract
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 8.38% for 2026-04-17 options. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 22.23, it implies a move of about $ 1.86 per day.
Open Interest Map for Ingram Options 2026-04-17
Outstanding option contracts for Ingram Micro are summarized through open interest, which highlights market participation.
Ingram Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ingram price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ingram using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ingram charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.79 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ingram Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ingram Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ingram Micro | Ingram Micro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ingram Micro Holding focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 18.70 on the downside to about 25.84 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ingram Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ingram Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1402 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5328 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.4369 |
Mean reversion in Ingram Micro's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Ingram Micro's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Ingram Micro distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Ingram Micro's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Ingram Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.89 and 26.07, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Ingram Micro are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Ingram Micro Holding is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. Ingram Micro is Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ingram Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ingram Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ingram Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 3.57 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 7 Events | 7 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.23 | 22.48 | 0.27 |
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Hype Timeline
Ingram Micro Holding is currently traded for 22.23. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Ingram is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.48 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Ingram Micro is about 1961.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.25. The company reported previous year's revenue of 52.56 B. Net Income was 327.88 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.51 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 7 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Ingram Micro. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Ingram Micro's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Ingram Micro's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories | 0.28 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 2.67 | -3.59 | 9.25 | |
| WEX | Wex Inc | 0.53 | 8 per month | 2.21 | 0.06 | 3.59 | -3.62 | 14.87 | |
| EXLS | ExlService Holdings | 1.74 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 1.94 | -4.65 | 20.62 | |
| SAIC | Science Applications International | -1.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 3.99 | -3.86 | 21.96 | |
| VNT | Vontier Corp | 0.31 | 10 per month | 1.81 | 0.04 | 3.42 | -3.11 | 8.90 | |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics | -0.34 | 10 per month | 1.24 | 0.17 | 3.50 | -2.50 | 15.74 | |
| G | Genpact Limited | 0.23 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 2.89 | -3.57 | 13.88 | |
| KD | Kyndryl Holdings | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 6.43 | -6.44 | 61.35 | |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Holdings | -0.01 | 11 per month | 0.79 | 0.10 | 1.38 | -1.36 | 9.67 | |
| PSFE | Paysafe | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 6.66 | -4.81 | 24.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ingram Micro
The price movement of Ingram is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Ingram Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Ingram Micro Related Equities
The following equities are related to Ingram Micro within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Ingram Micro against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ingram Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Ingram Micro stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Ingram Micro Holding.
Ingram Micro Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Ingram Micro is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Ingram Micro's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.55 | |||
| Variance | 12.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ingram Micro
Story coverage around Ingram Micro Holding often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Ingram Micro Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Ingram Micro Holding can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 235.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
More Resources for Ingram Stock Analysis
Understanding Ingram Micro Holding typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ingram Micro's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for Ingram Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Ingram Micro. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Ingram Micro currently shows ROE of 8.22%, market cap of 5.04 Billion. This analysis of Ingram Micro works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the security fits in a broader portfolio. The supplemental views below help investors decide how Ingram Micro complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.406 | Dividend Share 0.308 | Earnings Share 1.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
Ingram Micro Holding's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Ingram's balance sheet. Ingram Micro's market capitalization is 5.04 B. A P/B ratio of 1.19 indicates the market values Ingram Micro above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 6.84 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
The concept of value for Ingram Micro differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Ingram Micro, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 1.19, a profit margin of 0.62%, ROE of 8.22%, and revenue of 52.56 B. By contrast, Ingram Micro market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.