Heritage Commerce Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HTBK Stock | USD 12.25 0.24 2.00% |
Heritage Commerce's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.70.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Heritage Commerce Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Heritage Commerce observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for Heritage Commerce are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.70 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Heritage Commerce | Heritage Commerce Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Heritage Commerce Corp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2836 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.7 |
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Commerce
For investors of all experience levels considering Heritage, understanding Heritage Commerce's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Heritage Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Heritage Commerce Related Equities
The following equities are related to Heritage Commerce within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Heritage Commerce against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Heritage Commerce stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Heritage Commerce.
Heritage Commerce Risk Indicators
Assessing Heritage Commerce's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Heritage Commerce's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Heritage Commerce
Coverage intensity for Heritage Commerce Corp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Heritage Commerce Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Heritage Commerce Corp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 614.6 M |