Home Federal Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HFBL Stock | USD 17.85 0.60 3.48% |
Home Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Home Federal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Home Federal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Federal fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Home Federal's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Home Federal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.69 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 |
Using Home Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Home Federal Bancorp from the perspective of Home Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Home Federal Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 18.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07. Home Federal after-hype prediction price | USD 17.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Federal to cross-verify your projections. Home Federal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Home price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Home using various technical indicators. When you analyze Home charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Home Federal Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Home Federal Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 18.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Federal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Home Federal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Home Federal | Home Federal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Home Federal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Home Federal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Federal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.21 and 22.50, respectively. We have considered Home Federal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Federal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Federal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1354 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4601 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.0676 |
Predictive Modules for Home Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Federal Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Home Federal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Home Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Home Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Home Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Home Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Home Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Home Federal's historical news coverage. Home Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.74 and 21.96, respectively. We have considered Home Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Home Federal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Home Federal Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Home Federal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Home Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Home Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Home Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 4.14 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 12 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.85 | 17.85 | 0.00 |
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Home Federal Hype Timeline
Home Federal Bancorp is currently traded for 17.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Home is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on Home Federal is about 4224.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.89. About 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Home Federal Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 27th of October 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 1st of April 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Federal to cross-verify your projections.Home Federal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Home Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Home Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Home Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Home Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.04 | 2.92 | (3.13) | 8.63 | |
| STLE | Stylesite Marketing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OPHC | OptimumBank Holdings | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.77 | 0.14 | 2.19 | (1.99) | 8.83 | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares | 0.30 | 4 per month | 1.24 | (0.01) | 2.03 | (2.22) | 12.58 | |
| PBBK | PB Bankshares | 0.19 | 7 per month | 1.51 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.53) | 10.19 | |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial PR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.91 | (3.14) | 9.74 | |
| CLST | Catalyst Bancorp | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.66 | 0.14 | 1.90 | (1.08) | 7.82 | |
| CASH | Meta Financial Group | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.03 | 0.12 | 3.43 | (1.75) | 5.74 | |
| FSEA | First Seacoast Bancorp | (0.28) | 8 per month | 1.99 | 0.04 | 4.23 | (3.38) | 25.19 | |
| BAFN | Bayfirst Financial Corp | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.08 | (6.08) | 13.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Home Federal
For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home Federal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Federal's price trends.Home Federal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Federal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Federal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Federal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Home Federal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Federal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Federal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Federal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home Federal Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Home Federal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Home Federal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Federal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting home stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.57 | |||
| Variance | 12.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Home Federal
The number of cover stories for Home Federal depends on current market conditions and Home Federal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Home Federal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Home Federal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Home Federal Short Properties
Home Federal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Home Federal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Home Federal Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Home Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Federal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Federal. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.69 | Dividend Share 0.525 | Earnings Share 1.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 |
The market value of Home Federal Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.