Graphic Packaging Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GPK Stock | USD 15.37 0.37 2.47% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphic Packaging Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 15.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.62. Graphic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Graphic Packaging's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Graphic Packaging's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Graphic Packaging fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Graphic Packaging's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Graphic Packaging, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5075 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8664 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7721 | Wall Street Target Price 17.17 |
Using Graphic Packaging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graphic Packaging Holding from the perspective of Graphic Packaging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Graphic Packaging using Graphic Packaging's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Graphic using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Graphic Packaging's stock price.
Graphic Packaging Short Interest
An investor who is long Graphic Packaging may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Graphic Packaging and may potentially protect profits, hedge Graphic Packaging with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.9917 | Short Percent 0.1256 | Short Ratio 5.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 26.8 M | 50 Day MA 15.5572 |
Graphic Packaging Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Graphic Packaging's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graphic. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graphic can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graphic Packaging Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Graphic Packaging Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Graphic Packaging's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Graphic Packaging Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Graphic Packaging's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Graphic Packaging stock will not fluctuate a lot when Graphic Packaging's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphic Packaging Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 15.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.62. Graphic Packaging after-hype prediction price | USD 15.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graphic Packaging to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Graphic contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Graphic Packaging Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Graphic Packaging trading at USD 15.37, that is roughly USD 0.007685 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Graphic Packaging's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Graphic Packaging Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Graphic Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Graphic Packaging's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Graphic Packaging's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Graphic Packaging stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Graphic Packaging's open interest, investors have to compare it to Graphic Packaging's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Graphic Packaging is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Graphic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Graphic Packaging Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graphic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graphic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graphic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graphic Packaging Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graphic Packaging Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 15.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graphic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graphic Packaging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graphic Packaging Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graphic Packaging | Graphic Packaging Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Graphic Packaging Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graphic Packaging's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graphic Packaging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.87 and 17.88, respectively. We have considered Graphic Packaging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graphic Packaging stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graphic Packaging stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0585 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.277 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.6219 |
Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graphic Packaging After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graphic Packaging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graphic Packaging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graphic Packaging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graphic Packaging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graphic Packaging's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graphic Packaging's historical news coverage. Graphic Packaging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.88 and 17.86, respectively. We have considered Graphic Packaging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graphic Packaging is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graphic Packaging Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graphic Packaging Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graphic Packaging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graphic Packaging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graphic Packaging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.51 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.37 | 15.37 | 0.00 |
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Graphic Packaging Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Graphic Packaging Holding is traded for 15.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Graphic is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Graphic Packaging is about 1755.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.35. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.38. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Graphic Packaging Holding has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 9:5 split on the 3rd of January 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graphic Packaging to cross-verify your projections.Graphic Packaging Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graphic Packaging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graphic Packaging's future price movements. Getting to know how Graphic Packaging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graphic Packaging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SEE | Sealed Air | 0.39 | 3 per month | 0.57 | 0.1 | 2.13 | (1.69) | 19.98 | |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings | 0.82 | 10 per month | 3.04 | (0.03) | 2.44 | (2.84) | 15.21 | |
| SON | Sonoco Products | 0.39 | 3 per month | 0.98 | 0.16 | 3.18 | (2.07) | 6.16 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | (0.02) | 12 per month | 1.20 | (0.03) | 2.08 | (1.56) | 9.71 | |
| MTH | Meritage | (2.49) | 10 per month | 1.72 | 0.01 | 3.46 | (2.68) | 13.06 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 0.39 | 12 per month | 1.58 | (0.03) | 3.65 | (2.56) | 8.25 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 0.39 | 3 per month | 2.53 | 0.1 | 6.16 | (4.67) | 12.88 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 0.39 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.30 | (2.48) | 15.09 | |
| FTDR | Frontdoor | (2.08) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.10 | (2.86) | 18.24 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.39 | 17 per month | 1.12 | 0.16 | 2.61 | (2.01) | 5.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Graphic Packaging
For every potential investor in Graphic, whether a beginner or expert, Graphic Packaging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graphic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graphic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graphic Packaging's price trends.Graphic Packaging Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graphic Packaging stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graphic Packaging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graphic Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graphic Packaging Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graphic Packaging stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graphic Packaging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graphic Packaging stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graphic Packaging Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graphic Packaging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graphic Packaging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graphic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Graphic Packaging
The number of cover stories for Graphic Packaging depends on current market conditions and Graphic Packaging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graphic Packaging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graphic Packaging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Graphic Packaging Short Properties
Graphic Packaging's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graphic Packaging's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graphic Packaging Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 305.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 157 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graphic Packaging to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 0.43 | Earnings Share 1.69 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.