Global Partners Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GLP Stock  USD 48.45  -0.04  -0.08%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Global Partners is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 48.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.21.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Global Partners observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Global Partners LP observations. All forecast values on this page for Global Partners LP are Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series.
Triple exponential smoothing for Global Partners - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Global Partners prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Global Partners price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Global Partners LP.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 48.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.65 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.21 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Global Partners LP focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
48.45
48.58
Expected Value
50.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1316
MADMean absolute deviation0.6307
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors37.2086
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Global Partners observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Global Partners LP observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Global Partners

For both new and experienced investors in Global, the ability to analyze Global Partners' price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Global Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.

Global Partners Related Equities

The following equities are related to Global Partners within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Global Partners against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Global Partners Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Global Partners provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Global Partners LP for maximum return potential.

Global Partners Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Global Partners' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Global Partners' allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Global Partners

Story coverage around Global Partners LP often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Global Partners Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Global Partners LP can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding34.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments12.2 M

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