Global Partners Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GLP Stock | USD 45.11 -1.06 -2.30% |
This reference view applies Double Exponential Smoothing to Global Partners LP's historical closing prices. Global Partners LP's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Global Partners LP's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Global Partners LP.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 44.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.21.When Global Partners LP prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Global Partners LP trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Global Partners observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Global Partners LP are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 44.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.76 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.21 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Global Partners | Global Partners Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Global Partners LP uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 42.96 on the downside to about 46.72 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0468 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6869 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.2146 |
Other Forecasting Options for Global Partners
Volume-weighted price analysis for Global Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Global momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Global Partners' realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Global Stock price action.Global Partners Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Global Partners within the Energy space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at Global Partners' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Global Partners Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Global Partners stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Global Partners LP trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when Global Partners stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Global Partners LP strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Global Partners Risk Indicators
Understanding Global Partners' risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Global Partners' investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Global Partners' basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for global stock becomes clearer when Global Partners' risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Global Partners
Story coverage around Global Partners LP often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Global Partners Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Global Partners LP is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.2 M |
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