THE GABELLI Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| GACIX Fund | USD 46.78 -0.77 -1.62% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for THE GABELLI is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Triple Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Small on the next trading day is expected to be 46.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.08.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past THE GABELLI observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older The Gabelli Small observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for THE GABELLI presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Small on the next trading day is expected to be 46.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.08 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE GABELLI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates THE GABELLI's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 45.43 and upside near 47.47.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE GABELLI mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE GABELLI mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0565 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3912 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0078 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.0818 |
Other Forecasting Options for THE GABELLI
The distribution of THE GABELLI's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in THE GABELLI's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of THE GABELLI's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in THE.THE GABELLI Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as THE GABELLI within the Small Blend space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether THE GABELLI earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THE GABELLI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for THE GABELLI give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in The Gabelli Small. Market strength analysis for The Gabelli Small works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For THE GABELLI, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.38 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.77 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.3 |
THE GABELLI Risk Indicators
A thorough review of THE GABELLI's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in THE GABELLI's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of THE GABELLI's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in THE GABELLI's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.769 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9914 | |||
| Variance | 0.9829 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THE GABELLI
A coverage review of The Gabelli Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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