THE GABELLI Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GACIX Fund | USD 47.55 -0.18 -0.38% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for THE GABELLI is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Small on the next trading day is expected to be 47.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.22.When The Gabelli Small prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any The Gabelli Small trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent THE GABELLI observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for THE GABELLI presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Small on the next trading day is expected to be 47.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict THE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE GABELLI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest THE GABELLI | THE GABELLI Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting The Gabelli Small for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 46.26 and upside near 48.28.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE GABELLI mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE GABELLI mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0681 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3871 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0078 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.2242 |
Other Forecasting Options for THE GABELLI
Regardless of investment experience, understanding THE GABELLI's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in THE. Price charts for THE Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.THE GABELLI Related Equities
The following equities are related to THE GABELLI within the Small Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing THE GABELLI against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
THE GABELLI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for THE GABELLI give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading THE GABELLI is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 47.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 47.55 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.18 |
THE GABELLI Risk Indicators
A thorough review of THE GABELLI's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding THE GABELLI's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7452 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9717 | |||
| Variance | 0.9442 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for THE GABELLI
A coverage review of The Gabelli Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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