FirstService Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FSV Stock | USD 134.25 -3.85 -2.79% |
This page provides reference data for FirstService Corp using Simple Moving Average forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of FirstService Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 136.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.15.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of FirstService Corp price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of FirstService Corp. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for FirstService Corp presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of FirstService Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 136.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 9.67 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.15 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FirstService Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FirstService Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for FirstService Corp focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FirstService Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FirstService Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.704 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.47 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2907 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 135.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for FirstService Corp
For investors considering FirstService, FirstService Corp's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in FirstService Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.FirstService Corp Related Equities
The following equities are related to FirstService Corp within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing FirstService Corp against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FirstService Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for FirstService Corp provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in FirstService Corp.
FirstService Corp Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of FirstService Corp's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in FirstService Corp's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FirstService Corp
Story coverage around FirstService Corp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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FirstService Corp Short Properties
A short-interest review of FirstService Corp provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 179.8 M |
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