First Seacoast Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FSEA Stock | USD 12.74 0.06 0.47% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Seacoast Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.38. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Seacoast stock prices and determine the direction of First Seacoast Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Seacoast's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of First Seacoast's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.198 |
Using First Seacoast hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Seacoast Bancorp from the perspective of First Seacoast response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Seacoast Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.38. First Seacoast after-hype prediction price | USD 12.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Seacoast to cross-verify your projections. First Seacoast Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Seacoast Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Seacoast Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Seacoast's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Seacoast Stock Forecast Pattern
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First Seacoast Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Seacoast's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Seacoast's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.66 and 15.87, respectively. We have considered First Seacoast's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Seacoast stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Seacoast stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0588 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.223 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.3812 |
Predictive Modules for First Seacoast
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Seacoast Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Seacoast's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Seacoast After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Seacoast at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Seacoast or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Seacoast, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Seacoast Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Seacoast's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Seacoast's historical news coverage. First Seacoast's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.63 and 15.85, respectively. We have considered First Seacoast's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Seacoast is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Seacoast Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Seacoast Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Seacoast is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Seacoast backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Seacoast, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 3.11 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.74 | 12.74 | 0.00 |
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First Seacoast Hype Timeline
First Seacoast Bancorp is currently traded for 12.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Seacoast is about 2046.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.77. About 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Seacoast Bancorp recorded a loss per share of 0.5. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 8358:10000 split on the 20th of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Seacoast to cross-verify your projections.First Seacoast Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Seacoast's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Seacoast's future price movements. Getting to know how First Seacoast's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Seacoast may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLST | Catalyst Bancorp | (0.02) | 15 per month | 0.66 | 0.14 | 1.90 | (1.08) | 7.82 | |
| STLE | Stylesite Marketing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial | 0.09 | 18 per month | 1.83 | 0.04 | 2.92 | (3.13) | 8.63 | |
| OPHC | OptimumBank Holdings | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.77 | 0.14 | 2.19 | (1.99) | 8.83 | |
| BYFC | Broadway Financial | (0.06) | 12 per month | 2.46 | 0.03 | 3.99 | (3.68) | 25.87 | |
| NSTS | NSTS Bancorp | 0.09 | 12 per month | 0.68 | 0.09 | 2.00 | (1.55) | 7.95 | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares | 0.09 | 12 per month | 1.24 | (0.01) | 2.03 | (2.22) | 12.58 | |
| PBBK | PB Bankshares | 0.09 | 9 per month | 1.51 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.53) | 10.19 | |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial PR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.91 | (3.14) | 9.74 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 1.15 | 8 per month | 3.12 | 0.11 | 6.73 | (3.72) | 21.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Seacoast
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Seacoast's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Seacoast's price trends.First Seacoast Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Seacoast stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Seacoast could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Seacoast by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Seacoast Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Seacoast stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Seacoast shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Seacoast stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Seacoast Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (3.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) |
First Seacoast Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Seacoast's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Seacoast's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Variance | 8.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Seacoast
The number of cover stories for First Seacoast depends on current market conditions and First Seacoast's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Seacoast is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Seacoast's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Seacoast Short Properties
First Seacoast's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Seacoast's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Seacoast Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Seacoast's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Seacoast's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 127.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Seacoast to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Seacoast. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Seacoast listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7 | Earnings Share (0.50) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.198 | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Seacoast Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Seacoast's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Seacoast's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Seacoast's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Seacoast's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Seacoast's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Seacoast is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Seacoast's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.