First Merchants Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FRME Stock | USD 36.56 -0.04 -0.11% |
This page provides Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for First Merchants, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from First Merchants's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 36.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.81.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Merchants observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Merchants observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for First Merchants is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 36.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.40 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.81 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Merchants | First Merchants Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates First Merchants' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Merchants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Merchants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0958 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4544 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Merchants
The autocorrelation structure of First Merchants' daily returns reveals whether First exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in First Stock price data.First Merchants Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Financials space can help frame First Merchants' pricing and running costs in context. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for First Merchants' results.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to First Merchants stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. Investors can use these indicators to make informed decisions about market timing when trading First Merchants.
First Merchants Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for First Merchants is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Merchants' investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Merchants
A coverage review of First Merchants shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
First Merchants Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to First Merchants matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |