First Merchants Valuation

FRME Stock  USD 37.39  0.47  1.27%   
Currently, First Merchants appears to be fairly valued. First Merchants has a latest Real Value of $38.44 per share. The latest price of First Merchants is $37.39. Our model measures the value of First Merchants from evaluating First Merchants fundamentals such as Shares Outstanding of 63.39 M, profit margin of 0.35 %, and Current Valuation of 3.1 B as well as evaluating its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting First Merchants' valuation include:
 Price Book
0.9583
 Enterprise Value
3.1 B
 Price Sales
3.6937
 Forward PE
11.0742
 Trailing PE
9.6366
Fairly Valued
Today
37.39
Please note that First Merchants' price fluctuation is Very Low at this time. Calculation of the real value of First Merchants is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing First Merchants' time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the First stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of First Merchants. Since First Merchants is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of First Stock. However, First Merchants' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  37.39 Real  38.44 Target  46.8 Hype  37.39 Naive  36.13
The intrinsic value of First Stock is an estimate of its true worth based on underlying business fundamentals. Common approaches to estimate First Merchants' intrinsic value include DCF analysis, earnings-based multiples, and net asset value models.
38.44
Real Value
40.02
Upside
A balanced view of First Merchants must account for both its upside potential and its downside risk. Forecasting how First stock performs depends on integrating both traditional fundamentals and market-based signals. Beyond First Merchants' core financials, our valuation incorporates:
Earnings
Estimates
LowProjectedHigh
0.940.870.98
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.8137.3938.97
Details
Potential
Annual Dividend
LowForecastedHigh
1.011.061.10
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
42.5946.8051.95
Details
Multiple valuation approaches for First Merchants each tell part of the story. A disciplined investor reconciles outputs of different methods to arrive at a realistic estimate of First Merchants' fair value.
Financial indicators imply that Cash is moving in a progressing direction. Previously, Cash was valued at 84.16 Million. As of last week, Accounts Payable is projected to grow to approximately 19.1 M, while Change To Account Receivables is moving higher toward about -1.5 M.

First Merchants Cash

79.95 Million

First Revenue by Product

First Merchants Total Value Analysis

From a capital-structure perspective, First Merchants is being framed with enterprise value of 3.1 B, market capitalization of 2.37 B, debt obligations near 999.93 M, and cash resources of 299.12 M. That snapshot should be treated as one valuation lens rather than as final proof of fair value because the interpretation can shift quickly when financing assumptions change.
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
3.1 B
2.37 B
999.93 M
299.12 M

First Merchants Investor Information

About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Merchants has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.4. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of March 2026. The firm completed a 105:100 stock split on 27th of August 2003. First Merchants financial framework integrates liquidity support with earnings capacity. Operating returns remain positive, suggesting ongoing earnings capacity. For financial institutions, capital adequacy, leverage ratios, and funding structure are central to financial strength assessment.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Operating Profit Margin0.180.2467
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Total Cash From Operating Activities297.8 M283.6 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Operating Income272.1 M259.1 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile

First Merchants Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. First Merchants has an asset utilization ratio of 5.52 percent. This indicates that the Company is making $0.0552 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that First Merchants is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.
Macro event markers
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

First Merchants Profitability Analysis

Based on First Merchants' profitability indicators, First Merchants may not be well positioned to generate adequate gross income at this time. Current readings indicate it has a very high probability of underperforming in April. Profitability indicators assess First Merchants' ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
 First Reported
1987-03-31
 Previous Quarter
56.8 M
 Current Value
57.1 M
 Quarterly Volatility
18.7 M
Macro event markers
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
As of last week, Gross Profit is projected to grow to approximately 672.2 M, whereas Pretax Profit Margin is moving lower toward 0.18.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Gross Profit Margin0.530.6096
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Net Profit Margin0.140.2152
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Operating Profit Margin0.180.2467
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Pretax Profit Margin0.180.2467
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Return On Assets0.01160.0119
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Return On Equity0.10.0916
Significantly Up
Slightly volatile
Profitability analysis for First Merchants works best when investors review the financial ratios and fundamental drivers that explain how efficiently the business converts revenue, assets, and operating inputs into earnings. These profitability indicators help investors judge how well First Merchants uses its assets to create earnings power and long-term shareholder value.

First Merchants Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

Projected EPS for First Merchants is 0.87, with a low-high corridor of 0.94 to 0.98. The latest trailing EPS is 3.88, allowing a direct check of consensus level versus realized earnings base. EPS forecast analysis for First Merchants is useful, but investors should remember that consensus numbers often reflect a normalized estimate rather than a full reconstruction of every accounting detail. First Merchants is projected to generate 0.8667 in earnings per share on 31st of March 2026. Future earnings-per-share expectations are often a key input when investors test valuation assumptions and momentum into the next quarter.
Macro event markers
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

First Merchants Earnings Estimation Breakdown

Analyst consensus points to a next EPS of 0.8667 for First Merchants, supported by trailing twelve-month earnings data from First Merchants. The full range of analyst projections spans 0.94 to 0.98, quantifying the uncertainty in the forward estimate. One-time items are stripped from this figure to reflect the ongoing earnings run rate.
Last Reported EPS
0.98
0.94
Lowest
Expected EPS
0.8667
0.98
Highest

First Merchants Earnings Projection Consensus

When analyst consensus implies a fair value for First Merchants above today's price, it creates a positive valuation gap that some investors associate with upside potential. A fair value below the current price does not automatically mean overvalued - growth-oriented stocks often trade above near-term earnings models. Use this signal as a starting point for deeper due diligence, not a standalone investment decision.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 31st of March 2026Current EPS (TTM)
695.71%
0.98
0.8667
3.88

First Merchants Ownership Allocation

The majority of First Merchants' outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. Large asset managers, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds that invest on behalf of clients or beneficiaries are typically subject to stricter disclosure rules than retail investors - including mandatory 13F filings that reveal quarterly position changes. Tracking these filings can highlight shifts in institutional conviction around First Merchants. Institutional ownership in First Merchants stands at roughly 71%, compared to 2% insider ownership and a public float of approximately 27%.

First Merchants Profitability Analysis

The company reported previous year's revenue of 1.05 B. Net Income was 226 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 641.7 M.

First Merchants Past Distributions to Stockholders

Valuation analysis for First Merchants should be treated as an ongoing process rather than a one-time answer, especially when investors are trying to understand how the market is pricing this stock. The practical goal is to understand how new information changes the valuation case, not to defend one static estimate after conditions move.

About First Merchants Valuation

First Merchants is a large-cap equity in Regional Banks, Banks - Regional, Financial Services categories. Revenue consistency stabilizes valuation context. First Merchants currently trades at P/E of 14.38, P/B of 0.96, P/S of 3.69.

Unless otherwise specified, financial data for First Merchants is derived from periodic company reporting (annual and quarterly where available). Asset-level metrics are computed daily by Macroaxis LLC and refreshed regularly based on asset type. First Merchants may have analyst coverage included in Macroaxis-derived consensus inputs when available. Updates may occur throughout the day.

Investors studying First Merchants need valuation context because market price alone does not explain whether the business is being priced aggressively or cautiously. Used properly, valuation helps investors judge whether the current market view looks justified relative to the company's operating evidence.
Share ownership in First Merchants is more than a price quote; it is a proportionate claim on the company's equity base and future distributions. Shares outstanding are near 63.4 M.

First Merchants Dividends Analysis For Valuation

Financial indicators imply that Dividend Payout Ratio is moving in a progressing direction. Previously, Dividend Payout Ratio was valued at 0.38. As of last week, Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio is projected to grow to 3.46, whereas Dividend Yield is moving lower toward 0.04.. Financial indicators imply that Retained Earnings Total Equity are moving in a progressing direction. Previously, Retained Earnings Total Equity were valued at 1.16 Billion. As of last week, Price Earnings Ratio is projected to grow to 10.63, whereas Earnings Yield is moving lower toward 0.08.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Dividends Paid84.8 M89 M
Dividend Yield 0.04 0.04
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.38 0.43
Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio 3.35 3.46
A dividend review of First Merchants is useful because distributions affect shareholder return even when they do not change enterprise value directly. A credible dividend profile can support valuation confidence, while an unstable one may call for more caution around expected return.

First Merchants Growth Indicators

A growth thesis around First Merchants should be tested carefully because strong valuation often reflects confidence that the business can keep compounding faster than peers. Used properly, growth analysis helps investors separate durable compounding from optimism that may already be fully priced in.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding57.7 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.109
Forward Price Earnings11.0742

First Merchants Current Valuation Indicators

Valuation work on First Merchants becomes more reliable when investors compare several lenses at once, including market value, enterprise value. revenue scale, and expected cash-flow durability. The better valuation questions are comparative: what is the market paying for each dollar of revenue, profit, and asset base, and is that premium justified?

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