First Mid Stock Forward View
| FMBH Stock | USD 39.62 0.63 1.62% |
First Mid's Naive Prediction reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is projected to be 39.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.95.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Mid Illinois. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Mid. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference values for First Mid are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. First Mid Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in First Mid's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-12-31 | Previous Quarter 278.1 M | Current Value 57.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 95.7 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 39.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.31 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.95 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Mid | First Mid Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for First Mid Illinois uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Mid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Mid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7791 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4025 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.9528 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Mid
For investors of all experience levels considering First, understanding First Mid's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. First Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.First Mid Related Equities
The following equities are related to First Mid within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing First Mid against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Mid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for First Mid stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading First Mid.
First Mid Risk Indicators
Assessing First Mid's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding First Mid's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Mid
A coverage review of First Mid Illinois shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
First Mid Short Properties
A short-interest review of First Mid Illinois provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.3 M |