FutureFuel Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FF Stock | USD 3.36 0.08 2.44% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FutureFuel Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75. FutureFuel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FutureFuel Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of FutureFuel Corp's share price is approaching 45. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FutureFuel Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Wall Street Target Price 14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.56) |
Using FutureFuel Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FutureFuel Corp from the perspective of FutureFuel Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FutureFuel Corp using FutureFuel Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FutureFuel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FutureFuel Corp's stock price.
FutureFuel Corp Implied Volatility | 1.89 |
FutureFuel Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FutureFuel Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FutureFuel Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FutureFuel Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when FutureFuel Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FutureFuel Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75. FutureFuel Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 3.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 FutureFuel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FutureFuel Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FutureFuel Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FutureFuel Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FutureFuel Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to FutureFuel Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FutureFuel Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FutureFuel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FutureFuel Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FutureFuel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FutureFuel using various technical indicators. When you analyze FutureFuel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FutureFuel Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FutureFuel Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FutureFuel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FutureFuel Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FutureFuel Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FutureFuel Corp | FutureFuel Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FutureFuel Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FutureFuel Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FutureFuel Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.68 and 6.04, respectively. We have considered FutureFuel Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FutureFuel Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FutureFuel Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0125 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0636 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.7498 |
Predictive Modules for FutureFuel Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FutureFuel Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FutureFuel Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FutureFuel Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FutureFuel Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FutureFuel Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FutureFuel Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FutureFuel Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FutureFuel Corp's historical news coverage. FutureFuel Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.70 and 6.02, respectively. We have considered FutureFuel Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FutureFuel Corp is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FutureFuel Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
FutureFuel Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FutureFuel Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FutureFuel Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FutureFuel Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.68 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.36 | 3.36 | 0.00 |
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FutureFuel Corp Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 FutureFuel Corp is listed for 3.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. FutureFuel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 190.07%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on FutureFuel Corp is about 369.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.15. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FutureFuel Corp recorded a loss per share of 0.79. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of March 2026. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FutureFuel Corp to cross-verify your projections.FutureFuel Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FutureFuel Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FutureFuel Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how FutureFuel Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FutureFuel Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMT | Core Molding Technologies | (0.63) | 20 per month | 3.14 | (0.01) | 3.78 | (5.13) | 13.25 | |
| BHST | BioHarvest Sciences Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 9.49 | (8.30) | 22.97 | |
| FRD | Friedman Industries Common | (1.41) | 6 per month | 3.42 | (0.02) | 5.33 | (5.84) | 16.36 | |
| TRX | Tanzanian Royalty Exploration | 0.68 | 18 per month | 3.83 | 0.14 | 6.67 | (6.35) | 20.25 | |
| LVRO | Lavoro Limited Class | (1.41) | 12 per month | 6.40 | 0.03 | 12.33 | (13.33) | 160.48 | |
| LUD | Luda Technology Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.23 | 0.04 | 16.93 | (12.66) | 56.55 | |
| AVD | American Vanguard | (0.22) | 42 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.95 | (6.33) | 13.30 | |
| MERC | Mercer International | (1.41) | 3 per month | 4.50 | 0 | 7.93 | (8.93) | 22.62 | |
| USGO | US GoldMining Common | (1.41) | 8 per month | 3.57 | 0.03 | 6.81 | (6.74) | 16.69 | |
| SMID | Smith Midland Corp | (1.45) | 7 per month | 3.19 | (0.02) | 4.54 | (5.17) | 13.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for FutureFuel Corp
For every potential investor in FutureFuel, whether a beginner or expert, FutureFuel Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FutureFuel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FutureFuel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FutureFuel Corp's price trends.FutureFuel Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FutureFuel Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FutureFuel Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FutureFuel Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FutureFuel Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FutureFuel Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FutureFuel Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FutureFuel Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FutureFuel Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FutureFuel Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of FutureFuel Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FutureFuel Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting futurefuel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FutureFuel Corp
The number of cover stories for FutureFuel Corp depends on current market conditions and FutureFuel Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FutureFuel Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FutureFuel Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FutureFuel Corp Short Properties
FutureFuel Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when FutureFuel Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FutureFuel Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FutureFuel Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FutureFuel Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 109.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FutureFuel Corp to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in FutureFuel Stock please use our How to Invest in FutureFuel Corp guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FutureFuel Corp. If investors know FutureFuel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FutureFuel Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 0.24 | Earnings Share (0.79) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.56) |
The market value of FutureFuel Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FutureFuel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FutureFuel Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FutureFuel Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FutureFuel Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FutureFuel Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FutureFuel Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FutureFuel Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FutureFuel Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.