FutureFuel Corp Stock Forward View
| FF Stock | USD 3.65 -0.06 -1.62% |
FutureFuel Corp's Naive Prediction reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FutureFuel Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.64.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of FutureFuel Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict FutureFuel Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. FutureFuel Corp's Naive Prediction reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. FutureFuel Corp Cash Forecast
Predicting FutureFuel Corp's cash flow requires a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. Probabilistic estimates of future performance inform valuation and risk management decisions for FutureFuel Corp.
Cash | First Reported 2006-12-31 | Previous Quarter 85.6 M | Current Value 51.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 57.8 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FutureFuel Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FutureFuel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FutureFuel Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FutureFuel Corp | FutureFuel Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates FutureFuel Corp's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.04 on the downside to about 6.79 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FutureFuel Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FutureFuel Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3155 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0339 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.641 |
Other Forecasting Options for FutureFuel Corp
Analyzing FutureFuel Corp's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in FutureFuel Corp's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.FutureFuel Corp Related Equities
These stocks within the Materials space are often compared to FutureFuel Corp by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for FutureFuel Corp's results.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FutureFuel Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for FutureFuel Corp stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade FutureFuel Corp.
| Accumulation Distribution | 26373.56 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.33 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 |
FutureFuel Corp Risk Indicators
Assessing FutureFuel Corp's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting FutureFuel Corp's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Variance | 11.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FutureFuel Corp
A coverage review of FutureFuel Corp shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
FutureFuel Corp Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to FutureFuel Corp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.3 M |