Esquire Financial Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

ESQ Stock  USD 105.47  -0.68  -0.64%   
This page provides reference data for Esquire Financial using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Esquire Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.25.When Esquire Financial Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Esquire Financial Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Esquire Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Esquire Financial presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Esquire Financial works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Esquire Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 7.16 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.25 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Esquire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Esquire Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Esquire Financial  Esquire Financial Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Esquire Financial Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 102.34 on the downside to about 107.16 on the upside.
Market Value
105.47
102.34
Downside
104.75
Expected Value
107.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Esquire Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Esquire Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7195
MADMean absolute deviation2.072
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors122.25
When Esquire Financial Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Esquire Financial Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Esquire Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Esquire Financial

For investors considering Esquire, Esquire Financial's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Esquire Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.

Esquire Financial Related Equities

The following equities are related to Esquire Financial within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Esquire Financial against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Esquire Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Esquire Financial provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Esquire Financial Holdings.

Esquire Financial Risk Indicators

A structured analysis of Esquire Financial's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Esquire Financial's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Esquire Financial

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Esquire Financial Holdings can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Esquire Financial Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Esquire Financial Holdings is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding8.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments482.4 M

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