Dana Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DAN Stock  USD 33.66  0.30  0.90%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Dana Inc. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 33.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.57.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dana observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dana Inc observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Dana Inc is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for Dana - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Dana prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Dana price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Dana Inc.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 33.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.55 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.57 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Dana Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
33.66
33.75
Expected Value
36.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dana stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dana stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0754
MADMean absolute deviation0.552
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors32.57
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dana observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dana Inc observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Dana

Dana's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Dana often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Dana Related Equities

These stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space are often compared to Dana by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Dana's capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dana Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Dana stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Dana Inc.

Dana Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Dana's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dana

Coverage intensity for Dana Inc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Dana Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Dana Inc is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding139.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments476 M

More Resources for Dana Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of Dana Inc centers on its financial statements and observed trends. Supporting reports for Dana Inc Stock are presented below: