Dana Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DAN Stock  USD 31.90  -0.09  -0.28%   
As of today, the short-cycle RSI for Dana stands at 55, indicating neutral momentum. Values near 50 generally reflect equilibrium between upward and downward pressure.
Momentum
 Impartial
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dana's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dana Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Key fundamental drivers for Dana's price forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
22.046
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.3453
 EPS Estimate Current Year
0.7935
 EPS Estimate Next Year
2.1885
 Wall Street Target Price
26.1429
This view frames how Dana Inc responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context. Sentiment is summarized using Dana's options positioning and short interest activity.

Dana Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Dana's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Dana. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Dana stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
 200 Day MA
16.9133
 Short Percent
0.0567
 Short Ratio
1.95
 Shares Short Prior Month
3.1 M
 50 Day MA
20.1506

Dana Relative Strength Index

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 31.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.42.

Dana Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Dana's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dana. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dana can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dana's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Dana.
Dana Implied Volatility
    
  1.56  
Dana's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dana Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dana's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 31.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.42.
Dana after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 31.72  
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dana to cross-verify projections for Dana. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

Rule 16 for the current Dana contract - Volatility Context

Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0975% for the 2026-03-20 options. With Dana trading near $ 31.9, that translates to about $ 0.0311 per day in either direction.

Open Interest for Dana 2026-03-20 Options

Open interest counts active option contracts on Dana, providing a view of participation and positioning in the options market. It adds context to volatility and price behavior.

Dana Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Dana simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dana Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dana Inc prices get older.

Dana Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dana Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 31.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.50 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.42 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dana Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dana  Dana Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Dana Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Dana Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
31.90
31.90
Expected Value
34.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dana stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dana stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5848
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.154
MADMean absolute deviation0.4903
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors29.42
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dana Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dana observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.3431.7234.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.5230.9033.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.9433.4535.95
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.7926.1429.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dana. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dana's peers to derive any actionable benefits.

Dana After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dana at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dana Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dana's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dana's historical news coverage.
Current Value
31.90
31.72
After-hype Price
34.10
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Dana Inc assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Dana Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dana is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dana backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dana, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.59 
2.37
  0.70 
  0.37 
9 Events
7 Events
In 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
31.90
31.72
2.29 
199.16  
Notes

Dana Hype Timeline

On the 12th of March 2026 Dana Inc is traded for 31.90. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.7, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.37. Dana is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 31.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 199.16%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 2.29%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.59%. The volatility of related hype on Dana is about 376.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.27. Dana Inc has $3.52 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.51, which is consistent with its industry peers. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 9 days.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dana to cross-verify projections for Dana. The view provides historical context for the projection set.

Dana Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dana's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dana's future price movements. Getting to know how Dana's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GTXGarrett Motion 0.12 10 per month 1.91 0.07 3.35 -3.33 13.52
PHINPHINIA Inc 1.00 10 per month 1.68 0.16 3.67 -2.92 9.07
SAHSonic Automotive 2.54 6 per month 0.00 -0.02 3.25 -3.06 13.73
ADNTAdient PLC 1.30 10 per month 2.04 0.07 5.13 -3.50 19.51
ZGNErmenegildo Zegna NV-0.33 6 per month 3.07 0.02 4.30 -3.34 16.59
HBIHanesbrands 1.06 26 per month 1.49 0.04 2.38 -2.35 7.22
GTGoodyear Tire Rubber 0.15 8 per month 0.00 -0.06 4.46 -3.64 20.25
CPRICapri Holdings 0.87 9 per month 0.00 -0.22 3.29 -5.07 17.68
VSCOVictorias Secret Co-0.33 9 per month 3.91 0.05 5.78 -5.32 30.16
VCVisteon Corp-0.09 9 per month 0.00 -0.04 4.39 -3.26 18.28

Other Forecasting Options for Dana

For every potential investor in Dana, whether a beginner or expert, Dana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Dana Related Equities

The following equities are related to Dana within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Dana against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dana Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dana stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dana shares will generate the highest return on.

Dana Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dana

Coverage intensity for Dana Inc matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Dana Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Dana Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding139.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments476 M

More Resources for Dana Stock Analysis

A structured review of Dana Inc often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Dana Inc Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Dana Inc Stock:
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dana to cross-verify projections for Dana. The view provides historical context for the projection set.
Analysis related to Dana should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
22.046
 Dividend Share
0.4
 Earnings Share
0.44
 Revenue Per Share
70.655
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.011
The market value of Dana Inc is measured differently than book value, which reflects Dana accounting equity. Dana's market capitalization is 2.46 B. With a P/B ratio of 3.19, the market values Dana well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 6.6 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Dana's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Dana, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 23.25, a P/B ratio of 3.19, a profit margin of 0.55%, and ROE of 5.31%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.