CSX Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CSX Stock | USD 38.88 0.01 0.03% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for CSX is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSX Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 38.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.22.When CSX Corporation prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any CSX Corporation trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent CSX observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for CSX presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSX Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 38.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.33 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CSX | CSX Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates CSX's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 37.53 and upside around 40.43 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSX stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSX stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0614 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4444 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for CSX
The distribution of CSX's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in CSX's chart that simple price charts miss.CSX Related Equities
These stocks are related to CSX within the Industrials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag CSX across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CSX Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for CSX give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in CSX Corporation.
CSX Risk Indicators
A thorough review of CSX's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in CSX's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CSX
The amount of media and story coverage tied to CSX Corporation can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
CSX Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to CSX Corporation matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 675 M |