Carters Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CRI Stock  USD 34.47  0.24  0.70%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Carters is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carters on the next trading day is projected to be 34.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.09.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Carters observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Carters observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Carters reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Triple exponential smoothing for Carters - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Carters prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Carters price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Carters.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carters on the next trading day is expected to be 34.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.16 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.09 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carters Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carters' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Carters for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
34.47
34.49
Expected Value
38.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carters stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carters stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0307
MADMean absolute deviation0.8659
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0241
SAESum of the absolute errors51.09
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Carters observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Carters observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Carters

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Carters Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Carters occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Carters' historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Carters Related Equities

Carters's market space within the Consumer Discretionary space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Carters' capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Carters Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Carters provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Carters is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Carters with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Carters are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.

Carters Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Carters' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Carters'. Analyzing Carters' risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Carters' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Carters

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Carters can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Carters Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Carters can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments487.1 M

More Resources for Carters Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of Carters centers on its financial statements and observed trends. These metrics are based on Carters' reported financial results.