Central Pacific Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

CPF Stock  USD 30.73  -0.01  -0.03%   
Per the latest calculation, Central Pacific posts the RSI oscillator reading of 40, reflecting mild downside bias. This range suggests moderated price movement without extreme directional pressure.
Momentum
Sell Peaked
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
This module analyzes aggregated news and social signals around Central Pacific Financial to forecast near-term price direction. It is best used as one input among several, alongside fundamental and technical analysis. Primary fundamentals used for Central Pacific's price context:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.031
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.68
 EPS Estimate Current Year
3.25
 EPS Estimate Next Year
3.6333
 Wall Street Target Price
37.5
This section summarizes Central Pacific Financial headline activity and related price response context. Options and short interest metrics are combined here to describe sentiment for Central Pacific.

Short Interest Activity for Central Pacific

Short sellers in Central Pacific profit when Central Pacific's stock falls below their entry price. Monitoring short interest helps long investors understand the magnitude of selling pressure they face.
 200 Day MA
30.0151
 Short Percent
0.0239
 Short Ratio
2.76
 Shares Short Prior Month
372.8 K
 50 Day MA
32.4848

RSI Momentum View - Central

The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Pacific Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 30.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.56.

Hype and Price Context: Central Pacific Financial

When Central Pacific's news sentiment peaks, stock prices often follow with a lag. Similarly, sentiment troughs can mark price bottoms if fundamental business quality remains intact.
Tracking how Central Pacific's sentiment evolves after major announcements helps investors assess whether the market's reaction was proportionate or whether an over-correction created a new entry opportunity in Central Pacific.
Central Pacific Implied Volatility
    
  0.92  
The implied volatility skew for Central Pacific options - the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls at different strikes - reveals the market's asymmetric fear of downside versus upside moves in Central Pacific's stock.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Pacific Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 30.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.56.
Central Pacific after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 30.74  
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Cross-verify projections for Central Pacific using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific. The historical view provides additional context.

Rule 16 Reference for the current Central contract - Pricing Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-04-17 options is about 0.0575%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 30.73, it implies a move of about $ 0.0177 per day.

Open Interest Distribution for Central 2026-04-17 Options

Active contract counts for Central Pacific are shown through open interest, offering positioning and liquidity context.

Central Pacific Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Central price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Central using various technical indicators. When you analyze Central charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Central Pacific works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Central Pacific Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Pacific Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 30.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.31 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.56 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Central Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Central Pacific  Central Pacific Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Central Pacific Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Central Pacific Financial uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
30.73
30.56
Expected Value
32.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0861
MADMean absolute deviation0.3993
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors23.5568
When Central Pacific Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Central Pacific Financial trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Central Pacific observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
The mean reversion framework for Central Pacific is built on the premise that markets are not perfectly efficient and that prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.0730.7432.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.6634.5536.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.4132.7535.08
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
34.1337.5041.63
Details
Investors analyzing Central Pacific Financial should position it within its competitive landscape. Superior peer-relative performance is one of the strongest justifications for a valuation premium.

Central Pacific After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Visualizing the full distribution of potential Central Pacific outcomes discourages binary thinking about investments. Rather than asking whether Central Pacific's price will go up or down, the distribution approach asks: what is the range of outcomes and how probable is each?
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Central Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The news-based price prediction model for Central Pacific is transparent: it measures how Central Pacific's has historically reacted to news, not how it will theoretically behave. Central Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.07 and 32.41, respectively. Investors should use this model as one input among many when evaluating Central Pacific ahead of anticipated news.
Current Value
30.73
30.74
After-hype Price
32.41
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Central Pacific Financial assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Central Pacific Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Central Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Central Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Central Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.67
  0.01 
 0.00  
7 Events
8 Events
In 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
30.73
30.74
0.03 
695.83  
Notes

Central Pacific Hype Timeline

On the 12th of March 2026 Central Pacific Financial is traded for 30.73. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Central is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.74 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Central Pacific is about 55666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.73. The company reported last year's revenue of 362.32 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 77.48 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 276.98 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 7 days.
Cross-verify projections for Central Pacific using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific. The historical view provides additional context.

Central Pacific Related Hype Analysis

The peer hype analysis for Central Pacific identifies which competitors tend to lead the sector in their news reactions. These leading indicators provide early signals about the direction of Central Pacific's upcoming performance.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MOFGMidWestOne Financial Group 0.12 5 per month 1.11 0.19 3.03 -2.28 13.04
HAFCHanmi Financial 0.60 5 per month 0.00 -0.05 3.27 -2.05 18.20
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial 0.09 8 per month 1.58 0.06 2.85 -2.47 10.77
HFWAHeritage Financial 0.40 11 per month 1.82 0.05 3.65 -3.59 12.71
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares-0.27 9 per month 0.00 -0.0014 2.47 -2.07 9.55
FSBCFive Star Bancorp-0.19 7 per month 1.28 0.07 2.75 -1.77 10.06
AMALAmalgamated Bank-0.08 9 per month 1.34 0.17 3.73 -2.13 11.09
HBTHbt Financial-0.40 9 per month 1.68 0.06 2.74 -2.96 9.31
EQBKEquity Bancshares-0.02 10 per month 0.00 -0.01 2.37 -2.22 13.01
SBSISouthside Bancshares-0.22 9 per month 0.00  0.0039 2.73 -2.11 9.35

Other Forecasting Options for Central Pacific

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Central is a viable investment for any investor. Central Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

Central Pacific Related Equities

The following equities are related to Central Pacific within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Central Pacific against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Central Pacific Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of Central Pacific stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Central Pacific Financial is most likely to be profitable.

Central Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of Central Pacific's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Central Pacific's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Central Pacific

Coverage intensity for Central Pacific Financial matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Central Pacific Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Central Pacific Financial matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding26.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments836.4 M

More Resources for Central Stock Analysis

Reviewing Central Pacific Financial commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Central Pacific Financial Stock. Below are reports that help frame Central Pacific Financial Stock in context:
Cross-verify projections for Central Pacific using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific. The historical view provides additional context.
Analysis related to Central Pacific should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.031
 Dividend Share
1.09
 Earnings Share
2.86
 Revenue Per Share
10.285
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.283
Understanding Central Pacific Financial includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Central accounting equity. Central Pacific's market capitalization is 824.04 M. A P/B ratio of 1.36 indicates the market values Central Pacific above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 527.44 M. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Central Pacific differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Central Pacific, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 12.65, a P/B ratio of 1.36, a profit margin of 27.97%, and ROE of 13.7%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.