Canadian Pacific Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CP Stock | USD 78.24 -0.22 -0.28% |
This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Canadian Pacific Railway presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 77.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.66.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Canadian Pacific observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Canadian Pacific Railway observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Canadian Pacific Railway are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 77.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.52 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canadian Pacific | Canadian Pacific Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Canadian Pacific Railway uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 75.64 and upside near 78.94.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0712 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9434 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.6616 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Pacific
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Canadian is a viable investment for any investor. Canadian Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.Canadian Pacific Related Equities
The following equities are related to Canadian Pacific within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Canadian Pacific against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canadian Pacific Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of Canadian Pacific stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Canadian Pacific Railway is most likely to be profitable.
Canadian Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canadian Pacific's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Canadian Pacific's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canadian Pacific
A coverage review of Canadian Pacific Railway shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Canadian Pacific Short Properties
A short-interest review of Canadian Pacific Railway provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 917.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 184 M |
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