Canadian Pacific Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CP Stock  USD 78.24  -0.22  -0.28%   
This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Canadian Pacific Railway presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 77.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.66.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Canadian Pacific observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Canadian Pacific Railway observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Canadian Pacific Railway are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Triple exponential smoothing for Canadian Pacific - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Canadian Pacific prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Canadian Pacific price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Canadian Pacific Railway.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 77.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.52 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.66 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Canadian Pacific Railway uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 75.64 and upside near 78.94.
Market Value
78.24
77.29
Expected Value
78.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0712
MADMean absolute deviation0.9434
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.012
SAESum of the absolute errors55.6616
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Canadian Pacific observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Canadian Pacific Railway observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Pacific

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Canadian is a viable investment for any investor. Canadian Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

Canadian Pacific Related Equities

The following equities are related to Canadian Pacific within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Canadian Pacific against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Canadian Pacific Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of Canadian Pacific stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Canadian Pacific Railway is most likely to be profitable.

Canadian Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of Canadian Pacific's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Canadian Pacific's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Canadian Pacific

A coverage review of Canadian Pacific Railway shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Canadian Pacific Short Properties

A short-interest review of Canadian Pacific Railway provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding917.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments184 M

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