Canadian Pacific Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CP Stock | USD 79.46 1.22 1.56% |
Canadian Pacific Railway's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 79.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Canadian Pacific Railway forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Canadian Pacific observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Canadian Pacific Railway are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canadian Pacific Railway on the next trading day is expected to be 79.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.63 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Canadian Pacific Railway focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 77.77 and upside around 81.15 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6011 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0848 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9713 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Pacific
Bollinger Bands applied to Canadian Stock price data measure how far Canadian has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Canadian Pacific's price data.Canadian Pacific Related Equities
Checking Canadian Pacific against related firms within the Industrials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Market cap and total value checks frame Canadian Pacific's size within the competitive field. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. Tracking Canadian Pacific's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canadian Pacific Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Canadian Pacific Railway, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Canadian Pacific Railway positions.
Canadian Pacific Risk Indicators
Analyzing Canadian Pacific's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for canadian stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Canadian Pacific's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canadian Pacific
Coverage intensity for Canadian Pacific Railway matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Canadian Pacific Short Properties
A short-interest review of Canadian Pacific Railway provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 917.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 184 M |
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