Cogna Educao Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| COGN3 Stock | BRL 3.04 -0.01 -0.33% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Cogna Educao is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogna Educao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.07.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Cogna Educao observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Cogna Educao SA observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Cogna Educao presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cogna Educao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.07 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogna Educao's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cogna Educao | Cogna Educao Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Cogna Educao's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogna Educao stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogna Educao stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0044 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0845 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.0672 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cogna Educao
The distribution of Cogna Educao's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Cogna Educao's chart that simple price charts miss.Cogna Educao Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Education & Training Services space can help frame Cogna Educao's pricing and running costs in context. Growth rate gaps between Cogna Educao and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. Weighing both financial metrics and softer factors when comparing these firms produces a more balanced assessment.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogna Educao Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Cogna Educao give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Cogna Educao SA.
Cogna Educao Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Cogna Educao's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Cogna Educao's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Variance | 10.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cogna Educao
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Cogna Educao SA can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Cogna Educao Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Cogna Educao SA matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
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