Cogna Educao Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| COGN3 Stock | BRL 2.98 0.03 1.02% |
This page provides reference data for Cogna Educao using Simple Regression forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Cogna Educao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 3.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.39.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Cogna Educao SA historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. This Simple Regression reference page for Cogna Educao presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Cogna Educao SA on the next trading day is expected to be 3.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.39 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogna Educao's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cogna Educao | Cogna Educao Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Cogna Educao SA for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.13 and upside near 6.95.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogna Educao stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogna Educao stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5511 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3507 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0965 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3913 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cogna Educao
For investors considering Cogna, Cogna Educao's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Cogna Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Cogna Educao Related Equities
The following equities are related to Cogna Educao within the Education & Training Services space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Cogna Educao against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogna Educao Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Cogna Educao provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Cogna Educao SA.
Cogna Educao Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Cogna Educao's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Cogna Educao's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Variance | 10.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cogna Educao
A coverage review of Cogna Educao SA helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Cogna Educao Short Properties
A short-interest review of Cogna Educao SA helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
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