Cardinal Health Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CLH Stock | EUR 191.00 1.15 0.61% |
Cardinal Health's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardinal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 191.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.53.When Cardinal Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Cardinal Health trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Cardinal Health observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Cardinal Health is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardinal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 191.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75 , mean absolute percentage error of 15.78 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.53 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cardinal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cardinal Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cardinal Health | Cardinal Health Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Cardinal Health focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cardinal Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cardinal Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5421 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7548 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 162.5342 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cardinal Health
The movement of Cardinal price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in Cardinal Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.Cardinal Health Related Equities
The following equities are related to Cardinal Health within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Cardinal Health against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cardinal Health Market Strength Events
Investors use market strength indicators for Cardinal Health to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of Cardinal Health positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 191.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 191.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.58 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.84 |
Cardinal Health Risk Indicators
A careful analysis of Cardinal Health's basic risk indicators helps investors understand the risk environment surrounding cardinal stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting Cardinal Health's future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cardinal Health
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Cardinal Health can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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More Resources for Cardinal Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Cardinal Health starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate Cardinal Health Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Cardinal Health Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardinal Health to cross-verify projections for Cardinal Health. The historical view provides additional context. For a detailed overview of how to trade Cardinal Stock, see our How to Trade Cardinal Stock guide.With Cardinal Health showing P/E 10.35 and ROE -1.71%, investors get more value when this analysis is combined with the diversification and construction tools below. That valuation within Healthcare invites comparison with Medical Distribution peers using the tools below to judge whether the multiple is justified. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.