China Foods Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CFH Stock  EUR 0.42  -0.01  -2.33%   
China Foods Limited's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Foods Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting China Foods Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent China Foods observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for China Foods Limited is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
China Foods simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for China Foods Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as China Foods Limited prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Foods Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for China Foods Limited uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.0042 on the downside to about 4.51 on the upside.
Market Value
0.42
0.0042
Downside
0.42
Expected Value
4.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.9736
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0025
MADMean absolute deviation0.0121
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0269
SAESum of the absolute errors0.736
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting China Foods Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent China Foods observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for China Foods

The movement of China price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in China Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.

China Foods Related Equities

The following equities are related to China Foods within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing China Foods against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Foods Market Strength Events

Investors use market strength indicators for China Foods to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of China Foods Limited positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.

China Foods Risk Indicators

A careful analysis of China Foods' basic risk indicators helps investors understand the risk environment surrounding china stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting China Foods' future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for China Foods

The amount of media and story coverage tied to China Foods Limited can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

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More Resources for China Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

Financial ratios for China Foods help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare China across valuation measures and peers.