China Foods Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

CFH Stock  EUR 0.46  0.06  15.00%   
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for China Foods Limited. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Foods Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83.When China Foods Limited prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any China Foods Limited trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent China Foods observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for China Foods Limited is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for China Foods works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Foods Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest China Foods  China Foods Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for China Foods Limited focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
0.46
0.0046
Downside
0.47
Expected Value
4.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0023
MADMean absolute deviation0.0138
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0311
SAESum of the absolute errors0.8272
When China Foods Limited prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any China Foods Limited trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent China Foods observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for China Foods

China Foods' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in China often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of China Stock data examines overnight jumps between China Foods' closing and opening prices.

China Foods Related Equities

Checking China Foods against related firms within the Consumer Staples space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for China Foods' results.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Foods Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how China Foods stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading China Foods Limited. These indicators can identify periods when trading China Foods Limited may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.

China Foods Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding China Foods' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of China Foods' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for China Foods

Coverage intensity for China Foods Limited matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

More Resources for China Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

Key financial relationships within China Foods are expressed through its ratios. The metrics reflect the most recent disclosures available and are intended for reference only.