Cardlytics Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CDLX Stock | USD 0.96 0.13 16.02% |
This reference view applies Double Exponential Smoothing to Cardlytics's historical closing prices. Cardlytics's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Cardlytics's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Cardlytics.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardlytics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.63.When Cardlytics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Cardlytics trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Cardlytics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Cardlytics are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardlytics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0034 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.63 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cardlytics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cardlytics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cardlytics | Cardlytics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Cardlytics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.01 and upside around 6.63 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cardlytics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cardlytics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0101 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0446 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.6285 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cardlytics
Volume-weighted price analysis for Cardlytics Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Cardlytics momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Cardlytics' realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Cardlytics Stock price action.Cardlytics Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Cardlytics within the Communication Services space and serve as useful points for comparison. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Cardlytics' capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cardlytics Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Cardlytics stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Cardlytics. These metrics are particularly useful when Cardlytics stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Cardlytics strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
Cardlytics Risk Indicators
Understanding Cardlytics' risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Cardlytics' investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Cardlytics' basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for cardlytics stock becomes clearer when Cardlytics' risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 4.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.33 | |||
| Variance | 28.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cardlytics
Coverage intensity for Cardlytics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Cardlytics Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Cardlytics is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.7 M |