Cardlytics Stock Performance

CDLX Stock  USD 0.92  0.09  10.78%   
The company retains a Market Sensitivity (Beta) of 1.54, which indicates elevated sensitivity to broad market movements. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Cardlytics will likely underperform. At this point, Cardlytics has a negative expected return of -0.13%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Cardlytics has delivered negative risk-adjusted returns across the last 90 days, suggesting that volatility was not compensated by return. Current market capitalization is about 45.42 Million. Despite latest unsteady performance, the stock's essential indicators remain strong and the current disturbance on Wall Street may also be a sign of long term gains for the company's investors. Learn More
Begin Period Cash Flow65.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-15.3 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 108.00 in Cardlytics on December 23, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 17.00 from holding Cardlytics or given up 15.74% of portfolio value over 90 days. Cardlytics does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 5.4182% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 48% of stocks are less volatile than Cardlytics, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This benchmark view frames the instrument through return capture and volatility trade-offs. It is most useful when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cardlytics is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 6.46 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.02 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.09 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Price convergence toward a historical mean is a well-documented pattern for stocks like Cardlytics Stock. Although this tendency is a useful forecasting input, some instruments remain persistently mispriced before market correction. Periods of persistent mispricing in some stocks highlight the role of additional risk in pricing dynamics. This framework supports more structured thinking about where Cardlytics Stock price is likely to settle over time.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
0.92 90 days 0.92
about 65.54
Our distribution model estimates the likelihood of Cardlytics moving above the current price in 90 days from now at about 65.54 . The probability is derived from quantitative analysis of this stock's historical price data. Extreme market events can produce outcomes that fall outside the range predicted by normal distributions. Probability analysis is most informative when used as part of a disciplined investment process. (This Cardlytics distribution illustrates the range of expected prices for Cardlytics Stock over a 90-day period). Higher volatility in Cardlytics Stock produces a flatter, wider distribution with more dispersed price expectations. This chart provides a statistical baseline for evaluating Cardlytics Stock's price potential over 90 days. This analysis provides context for understanding the range of possible price paths for Cardlytics Stock.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.54 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cardlytics will likely underperform. Additionally, Cardlytics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Cardlytics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cardlytics

Investors use a wide range of techniques to forecast Cardlytics within the stock market. Combining results from different methods frames the confidence level investors can assign to Cardlytics predictions. Evaluating multiple forecasts helps separate persistent signals from short-term noise in Cardlytics price data. For Cardlytics, the combination of techniques matters more than the precision of any individual forecast.
Statistical evidence for mean reversion in Cardlytics' can be observed through its tendency to revert after extreme valuations. Investors who believe in mean reversion view Cardlytics' price extremes as temporary dislocations that may self-correct. Valuation-driven investors use mean reversion to time Cardlytics' investments around historical valuation multiples. Historical data for Cardlytics shows that extreme valuations have tended to normalize over multi-year periods.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.050.966.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.050.956.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.021.026.69
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
0.941.041.15
Details
When analyzing Cardlytics, investors should assess its competitive position relative to sector peers. Cardlytics' current valuation may reflect market-wide multiple expansion rather than genuine competitive edge. Competitive analysis of Cardlytics involves measuring Cardlytics' position against direct competitors. Investment merit for Cardlytics is best assessed through the lens of competitive peer performance.

Primary Risk Indicators

Significant market corrections and rallies over the last two decades have made the stock market challenging for Cardlytics investors. Dramatic market moves have periodically reshaped the risk landscape for holders of Cardlytics. Watching for changes in Cardlytics' volatility and market elasticity is one way to limit portfolio losses. A data-driven view of Cardlytics risk supports more disciplined portfolio management decisions.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.0621
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.54
σ
Overall volatility
0.20
Ir
Information ratio -0.0215

Investor Alerts and Insights

Tracking Cardlytics through automated alerts focuses attention on the most impactful stock developments. Reviewing Cardlytics notifications is an efficient way to stay current on technical patterns and fundamental changes. Systematic monitoring of Cardlytics through automated alerts reduces the risk of missing critical developments. Automated alert systems provide consistency that manual monitoring of Cardlytics cannot match.
Cardlytics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cardlytics has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Cardlytics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Cardlytics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Cardlytics currently holds $215.31 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.42, which is broadly in line with comparable companies. Cardlytics has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Cardlytics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The company reported previous year's revenue of 233.27 M. Net Loss for the year was -103.49 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 104.61 M.
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Cardlytics, Inc. Q 4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Price Density Drivers

Several forces contribute to Cardlytics' price dynamics, including buyer and seller positioning dynamics and market conditions. Monitoring Cardlytics' price density drivers provides context for distinguishing fundamental from tactical price moves. Key market indicators for Cardlytics reflect the combined effect of buyer and seller positioning dynamics and broader conditions. These indicators are most useful when reviewed consistently alongside Cardlytics's fundamental data.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding53.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments48.7 M

Cardlytics Fundamentals Growth

Market participants price Cardlytics Stock based on their assessment of Cardlytics' financial trajectory. Revenue and earnings growth, profitability metrics, and debt levels form the core fundamentals driving Cardlytics Stock. Revenue growth, earnings performance, and balance sheet health are critical fundamentals shaping Cardlytics Stock. Long-term performance of Cardlytics Stock depends on Cardlytics' ability to maintain strong fundamental execution.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Cardlytics performance is measured on a risk-adjusted basis against benchmarks. Upside capture and downside containment can vary by regime. Cardlytics shows ROE of -3.26%, ROA of -8.69%.

Unless otherwise specified, data for Cardlytics is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Updates may occur throughout the day. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Gabriel Shpitalnik - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 14th, 2026