Compania Cervecerias Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CCU Stock  USD 11.67  0.13  1.13%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Compania Cervecerias Unidas is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Compania Cervecerias observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Compania Cervecerias Unidas observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Compania Cervecerias Unidas are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Triple exponential smoothing for Compania Cervecerias - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Compania Cervecerias prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Compania Cervecerias price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Compania Cervecerias.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compania Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compania Cervecerias' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Compania Cervecerias  Compania Cervecerias Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Compania Cervecerias Unidas focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
11.67
11.54
Expected Value
13.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compania Cervecerias stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compania Cervecerias stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.019
MADMean absolute deviation0.2228
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0166
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1448
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Compania Cervecerias observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Compania Cervecerias Unidas observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Compania Cervecerias

Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Compania needs to understand the dynamics of Compania Cervecerias' price movement. Price charts for Compania Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.

Compania Cervecerias Related Equities

The following equities are related to Compania Cervecerias within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Compania Cervecerias against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Compania Cervecerias Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for Compania Cervecerias enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Compania Cervecerias Unidas.

Compania Cervecerias Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing Compania Cervecerias' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Compania Cervecerias' and decide how to manage it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Compania Cervecerias

Coverage intensity for Compania Cervecerias Unidas matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Compania Cervecerias Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Compania Cervecerias Unidas matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding184.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments530.6 B

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