Continental Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

CAL Stock  USD 8.86  -0.39  -4.22%   
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Caleres. The model output shown here is derived from Continental's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caleres on the next trading day is expected to be 8.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.33.When Caleres prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Caleres trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Continental observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Caleres is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Continental works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caleres on the next trading day is expected to be 8.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.33 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Continental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Continental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Continental's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.49 and upside near 11.99.
Market Value
8.86
8.74
Expected Value
11.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Continental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Continental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0492
MADMean absolute deviation0.3055
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0248
SAESum of the absolute errors18.33
When Caleres prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Caleres trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Continental observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Continental

For every potential investor in Continental, whether a beginner or expert, Continental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Continental Related Equities

The following equities are related to Continental within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Continental against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Continental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Continental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Continental shares will generate the highest return on.

Continental Risk Indicators

The analysis of Continental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Continental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Continental

Coverage intensity for Caleres matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Continental Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Caleres matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments29.6 M

More Resources for Continental Stock Analysis

A structured review of Continental often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Financial ratios provide a structured lens for assessing Continental's profitability and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame Caleres Stock in context: