Blackbaud Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| BLKB Stock | USD 44.14 -0.15 -0.34% |
Blackbaud's Polynomial Regression reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Blackbaud on the next trading day is expected to be 44.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.17.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Blackbaud historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm Blackbaud's Polynomial Regression reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Blackbaud on the next trading day is expected to be 44.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.53 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.17 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blackbaud Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blackbaud's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Blackbaud | Blackbaud Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Blackbaud focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 42.00 and upside near 46.97.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blackbaud stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blackbaud stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.373 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.511 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0293 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.1683 |
Other Forecasting Options for Blackbaud
Understanding Blackbaud's price movement is a critical first step for any investor considering Blackbaud. The noise present in Blackbaud Stock price charts can easily mislead investors who rely solely on visual inspection.Blackbaud Related Equities
The following equities are related to Blackbaud within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Blackbaud against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blackbaud Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Blackbaud stock is positioned relative to prevailing market trends. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Blackbaud.
Blackbaud Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blackbaud's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in accurately projecting its future price. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Blackbaud's and determining how best to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Variance | 5.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Blackbaud
Story coverage around Blackbaud often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Blackbaud Short Properties
A short-interest review of Blackbaud provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 759 M |