Blackbaud Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| BLKB Stock | USD 43.49 -0.01 -0.02% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.8 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0975 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.194 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.858 | Wall Street Target Price 59.8 |
This section frames Blackbaud response to recent headlines in a peer context. Sentiment context here is built from Blackbaud's options activity and short interest data.
Short Interest Panel - Blackbaud
Investors holding long positions in Blackbaud should monitor short interest as a risk management tool. Rising short interest may signal that sophisticated traders see near-term headwinds for Blackbaud.
200 Day MA 60.7046 | Short Percent 0.0693 | Short Ratio 2.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 52.2326 |
Relative Strength (RSI) - Blackbaud
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Blackbaud on the next trading day is expected to be 43.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.70.Blackbaud News-to-Price Pattern
Public biases reflected in Blackbaud's news sentiment can cause the market to systematically misprice Blackbaud. Identifying sentiment-driven mispricings is the foundation of news-based investment strategies.
Market participants who track Blackbaud's sentiment alongside traditional metrics gain additional insight into how non-fundamental forces are shaping Blackbaud's price at any given time.
Blackbaud Implied Volatility | 4.11 |
The Blackbaud implied volatility level measures the annualized expected price range of Blackbaud's stock as priced by options traders. A value of 30% means the market expects roughly a 30% range of price movement over the next year.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Blackbaud on the next trading day is expected to be 43.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.70.Blackbaud after-hype prediction price | $ 43.24 |
This view adds attention context to forecasting, technical signals, analyst estimates, and earnings data.
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Rule 16 Reference for the current Blackbaud contract
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 25.69% for 2026-03-20 options. With Blackbaud trading near $ 43.49, that translates to about $ 11.17 per day in either direction.
Open Interest Context: Blackbaud 2026-03-20 Options
Open interest counts active Blackbaud option contracts and frames participation alongside price behavior.
Blackbaud Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting Blackbaud's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Time-series models tend to perform better when fed clean, stationary data with consistent periodicity.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Blackbaud on the next trading day is expected to be 43.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 4.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.70 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blackbaud Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blackbaud's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Blackbaud | Blackbaud Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Blackbaud focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 41.42 and upside near 46.42.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blackbaud stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blackbaud stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.1535 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.8734 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5737 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.7025 |
Mean reversion traders in Blackbaud's look for price extremes that diverge materially from the historical norm, then position for the reversion that typically follows when the initial catalyst fades.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Financial return distributions for assets like Blackbaud are rarely normal. Blackbaud's price distribution may exhibit fat tails - a higher probability of extreme outcomes than a Gaussian model would predict - making tail risk management essential for Blackbaud investors.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
After analyzing Blackbaud's historical price reactions to major news events, we derive statistically significant upside and downside boundaries for the next significant headline. Blackbaud's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.74 and 45.74, respectively. These boundaries reflect how Blackbaud has historically moved in response to comparable catalysts.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Blackbaud assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blackbaud is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blackbaud backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blackbaud, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.59 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 7 Events | 7 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.49 | 43.24 | 0.57 |
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Hype Timeline
Blackbaud is currently traded for 43.49. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Blackbaud is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 43.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.57%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.59%. The volatility of related hype on Blackbaud is about 1773.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 43.57. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.45. Blackbaud had its last dividend issued on the 27th of February 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 7 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackbaud can be used to cross-verify projections for Blackbaud. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
The comparative hype analysis table for Blackbaud provides risk metrics - including hype elasticity, information ratio, and semi-deviation - for Blackbaud's direct competitors. helping investors contextualize the relative news sensitivity of Blackbaud.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KC | Kingsoft Cloud Holdings | 0.26 | 37 per month | 3.78 | 0.06 | 8.77 | -7.04 | 30.56 | |
| ASAN | Asana Inc | 0.24 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.33 | 3.55 | -7.03 | 13.86 | |
| PTRN | Pattern Group Series | -0.23 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.0045 | 10.78 | -7.71 | 25.95 | |
| BRZE | Braze Inc | 1.40 | 12 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 7.85 | -8.25 | 27.69 | |
| NCNO | nCino Inc | 0.38 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.21 | 4.34 | -6.27 | 15.71 | |
| INTA | Intapp Inc | 0.42 | 20 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 4.76 | -6.56 | 18.64 | |
| YOU | Clear Secure | -1.24 | 7 per month | 1.69 | 0.11 | 3.60 | -3.61 | 41.59 | |
| WRD | WeRide American Depositary | -0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 4.26 | -5.74 | 18.19 | |
| RUM | Rumble Inc | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 7.65 | -5.95 | 20.61 | |
| FRSH | Freshworks | 0.26 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.16 | 4.07 | -7.60 | 22.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Blackbaud
Understanding Blackbaud's price movement is a critical first step for any investor considering Blackbaud. The noise present in Blackbaud Stock price charts can easily mislead investors who rely solely on visual inspection.Blackbaud Related Equities
The following equities are related to Blackbaud within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Blackbaud against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blackbaud Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Blackbaud stock is positioned relative to prevailing market trends. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Blackbaud.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 43.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 |
Blackbaud Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blackbaud's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in accurately projecting its future price. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Blackbaud's and determining how best to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 6.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Blackbaud
Story coverage around Blackbaud often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Blackbaud Short Properties
A short-interest review of Blackbaud helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 759 M |
More Resources for Blackbaud Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Blackbaud starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate Blackbaud Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Blackbaud Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackbaud can be used to cross-verify projections for Blackbaud. The historical series provides projection context. Discover how to invest in Blackbaud Stock by reading our How to Buy Blackbaud Stock guide.Blackbaud currently shows ROE of 108.52%, market cap of 2.11 Billion. Investors get more value from Blackbaud analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. A thorough Blackbaud review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.8 | Earnings Share 2.37 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.02 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Blackbaud is measured differently than book value, which reflects Blackbaud accounting equity. Blackbaud's market capitalization is 2.11 B. At P/B 23.78, Blackbaud trades at a significant premium to book value. Enterprise value stands at 3.1 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Blackbaud differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Blackbaud, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 23.78, a profit margin of 10.19%, ROE of 108.52%, and revenue of 1.13 B. Blackbaud market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.