Topbuild Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BLD Stock | USD 517.50 23.59 4.78% |
Topbuild Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Topbuild Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Topbuild Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Topbuild Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Topbuild Corp's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Topbuild Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Topbuild Corp from the perspective of Topbuild Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Topbuild Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 517.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 506.39. Topbuild Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 519.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topbuild Corp to cross-verify your projections. Topbuild Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Topbuild price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Topbuild using various technical indicators. When you analyze Topbuild charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Topbuild Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Topbuild Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 517.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.44, mean absolute percentage error of 116.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 506.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Topbuild Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Topbuild Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Topbuild Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Topbuild Corp | Topbuild Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Topbuild Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Topbuild Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Topbuild Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 515.09 and 519.91, respectively. We have considered Topbuild Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Topbuild Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Topbuild Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.3995 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.4398 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 506.39 |
Predictive Modules for Topbuild Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Topbuild Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Topbuild Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Topbuild Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Topbuild Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Topbuild Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Topbuild Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Topbuild Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Topbuild Corp's historical news coverage. Topbuild Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 516.89 and 521.73, respectively. We have considered Topbuild Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Topbuild Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Topbuild Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Topbuild Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Topbuild Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Topbuild Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Topbuild Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.42 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 4 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
517.50 | 519.31 | 0.35 |
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Topbuild Corp Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Topbuild Corp is traded for 517.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.8, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Topbuild is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 519.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 96.8%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Topbuild Corp is about 1301.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 517.44. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.33 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 622.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.57 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topbuild Corp to cross-verify your projections.Topbuild Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Topbuild Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Topbuild Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Topbuild Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Topbuild Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STRL | Sterling Construction | (2.50) | 8 per month | 4.59 | 0.01 | 6.61 | (6.91) | 21.66 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 1.38 | 10 per month | 1.99 | 0.03 | 5.94 | (3.37) | 15.38 | |
| STN | Stantec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.96 | (2.27) | 7.51 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.19 | 4.56 | (1.86) | 9.87 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | (1.32) | 11 per month | 2.37 | 0.11 | 4.34 | (3.03) | 16.77 | |
| ERJ | ERJ Old | (0.31) | 9 per month | 2.08 | 0.03 | 4.08 | (3.91) | 9.21 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 1.53 | 10 per month | 2.78 | 0.03 | 2.23 | (1.97) | 13.77 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | 0.12 | 3.54 | (3.36) | 10.20 | |
| MAS | Masco | (0.64) | 10 per month | 1.21 | 0.08 | 3.56 | (2.16) | 7.82 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.12 | 3.31 | (2.33) | 7.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Topbuild Corp
For every potential investor in Topbuild, whether a beginner or expert, Topbuild Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Topbuild Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Topbuild. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Topbuild Corp's price trends.Topbuild Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Topbuild Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Topbuild Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Topbuild Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Topbuild Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Topbuild Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Topbuild Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Topbuild Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Topbuild Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0482 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9395 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 508.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 511.53 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 25.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 20.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 23.59 |
Topbuild Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Topbuild Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Topbuild Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting topbuild stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Topbuild Corp
The number of cover stories for Topbuild Corp depends on current market conditions and Topbuild Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Topbuild Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Topbuild Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Topbuild Corp Short Properties
Topbuild Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Topbuild Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Topbuild Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Topbuild Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Topbuild Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 400.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topbuild Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Topbuild Stock refer to our How to Trade Topbuild Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Household Durables sector continue expanding? Could Topbuild diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Topbuild Corp. Projected growth potential of Topbuild fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Topbuild Corp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Topbuild Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Topbuild that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Topbuild Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Topbuild Corp's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Topbuild Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Topbuild Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Topbuild Corp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Topbuild Corp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Topbuild Corp's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.