Boyd Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BGSI Stock   160.96  2.04  1.25%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boyd Group Services on the next trading day is expected to be 160.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.35. Boyd Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Boyd Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to decrease to 22.51. The current Payables Turnover is estimated to decrease to 3.62. The Boyd Group's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 23.5 M.
Boyd Group simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Boyd Group Services are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Boyd Group Services prices get older.

Boyd Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boyd Group Services on the next trading day is expected to be 160.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14, mean absolute percentage error of 10.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boyd Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boyd Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Boyd Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Boyd Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Boyd Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boyd Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 158.84 and 163.08, respectively. We have considered Boyd Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
160.96
158.84
Downside
160.96
Expected Value
163.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boyd Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boyd Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria76.3527
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1841
MADMean absolute deviation2.1446
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors79.35
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Boyd Group Services forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Boyd Group observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Boyd Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boyd Group Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Boyd Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
158.83160.96163.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
158.42160.55162.68
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Boyd Group

For every potential investor in Boyd, whether a beginner or expert, Boyd Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boyd Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boyd. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boyd Group's price trends.

Boyd Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boyd Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boyd Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boyd Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Boyd Group Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Boyd Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Boyd Group's current price.

Boyd Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Boyd Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Boyd Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Boyd Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Boyd Group Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Boyd Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Boyd Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boyd Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting boyd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Boyd Group Services offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Boyd Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Boyd Group Services Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Boyd Group Services Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boyd Group to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Auto & Truck Dealerships space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Boyd Group. If investors know Boyd will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Boyd Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Boyd Group Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Boyd that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Boyd Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Boyd Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Boyd Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Boyd Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Boyd Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Boyd Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Boyd Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.