Axos Financial Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AX Stock | USD 84.45 -0.23 -0.27% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.233 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.0433 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.734 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.904 | Wall Street Target Price 112 |
This view aligns Axos Financial's headline activity with price response and peer context. This module summarizes sentiment around Axos Financial using options and short interest metrics.
Axos Financial Short Interest Reading
A significant increase or decrease in Axos Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Axos. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Axos Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors.
200 Day MA 85.3061 | Short Percent 0.0628 | Short Ratio 5.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.2 M | 50 Day MA 92.7998 |
Axos RSI Context
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.80.Axos Financial Hype-to-Price View
Investor biases related to Axos Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Axos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Axos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Axos Financial's market sentiment to its price can help traders make decisions based on the overall investor consensus about Axos Financial.
Axos Financial Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
Axos Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Axos Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Axos Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.80.Axos Financial after-hype prediction price | $ 84.46 |
The sentiment panel provides context that can be compared with forecasting models and technical indicators.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify projections for Axos Financial. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 for the current Axos contract
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 3.62% for 2026-04-17 options. This context is informational: with Axos Financial near $ 84.45, the daily move estimate is $ 3.06 .
Open Interest Profile for Axos 2026-04-17 Contracts
Open interest summarizes open contracts on Axos Financial and offers neutral context on positioning.
Axos Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting Axos Financial's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Ensemble techniques that blend multiple model outputs often produce more stable predictions than any single model.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 , mean absolute percentage error of 4.64 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axos Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axos Financial | Axos Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Axos Financial's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 81.67 and upside around 86.13 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axos Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axos Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4133 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.522 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.7995 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axos Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Axos Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Axos Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axos Financial's historical news coverage.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Axos Financial across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axos Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axos Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axos Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.23 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events | 6 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
84.45 | 84.46 | 0.01 |
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Hype Timeline
As of March 17, 2026 Axos Financial is listed for 84.45. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Axos is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 84.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Axos Financial is about 24777.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 84.45. The company generated yearly revenue of 1.93 B. Reported Net Income was 432.91 M with gross profit of 1.27 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 10 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify projections for Axos Financial. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Axos Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axos Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Axos Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBOC | International Bancshares | -0.34 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.0022 | 2.43 | -2.40 | 10.34 | |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares | -0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 2.60 | -2.53 | 12.13 | |
| HWC | Hancock Whitney Corp | -1.43 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.38 | -2.96 | 9.69 | |
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services | 0.49 | 11 per month | 1.68 | 0.10 | 4.01 | -3.64 | 9.04 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | 0.20 | 11 per month | 1.23 | 0.09 | 1.95 | -1.78 | 12.70 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 0.82 | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.01 | 2.41 | -2.70 | 9.90 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | 1.06 | 6 per month | 1.65 | 0.02 | 2.40 | -2.55 | 13.22 | |
| OZK | Bank Ozk | -0.90 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 2.41 | -2.93 | 9.56 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | 0.16 | 8 per month | 1.44 | 0.07 | 2.11 | -1.96 | 10.98 | |
| AVAL | Grupo Aval | 0.19 | 10 per month | 3.13 | 0.02 | 4.67 | -5.70 | 24.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Axos Financial
For every potential investor in Axos, whether a beginner or expert, Axos Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Axos Financial Related Equities
The following equities are related to Axos Financial within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Axos Financial against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axos Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axos Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axos Financial shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 84.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 84.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.23 |
Axos Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axos Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axos Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Axos Financial
Coverage intensity for Axos Financial matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Axos Financial Short Properties
A short-interest review of Axos Financial helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
More Resources for Axos Stock Analysis
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify projections for Axos Financial. The historical view provides additional context. For information on how to trade Axos Stock refer to our How to Trade Axos Stock guide.With Axos Financial showing P/E 11.37 and ROE 16.75%, investors get more value when this analysis is combined with the diversification and construction tools below. Combining those profitability and valuation signals with the risk, diversification, and comparative tools below produces a more informed Financial Services position-sizing decision. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.233 | Earnings Share 7.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.218 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Axos Financial is measured differently than book value, which reflects Axos accounting equity. Axos Financial's market capitalization is 4.8 B. Axos Financial P/B of 1.64 shows the market assigns a modest premium over accounting equity. Enterprise value stands at 5.07 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Axos Financial's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Axos Financial, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 11.37, a P/B ratio of 1.64, a profit margin of 36.04%, and ROE of 16.75%. Axos Financial's market quotation reflects the latest level where a willing buyer met a willing seller.