American States Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AWR Stock | USD 72.40 -0.43 -0.59% |
American States's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American States Water on the next trading day is expected to be 72.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.63.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting American States Water forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent American States observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for American States is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American States Water on the next trading day is expected to be 72.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.82 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.63 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American States | American States Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting American States Water for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 71.17 and upside near 73.63.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American States stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American States stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0717 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0075 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6938 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for American States
For any investor considering American, American States' price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in American Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.American States Related Equities
The following equities are related to American States within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing American States against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for American States stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for American States Water.
American States Risk Indicators
The analysis of American States' basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in American States' investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9137 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American States
A coverage review of American States Water shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
American States Short Properties
A short-interest review of American States Water provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.8 M |
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