Avantor Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AVTR Stock | USD 12.24 0.03 0.25% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avantor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.45. Avantor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Avantor's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Avantor's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Avantor fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Avantor's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2543 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9004 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.91 | Wall Street Target Price 13.0357 |
Using Avantor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avantor from the perspective of Avantor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Avantor using Avantor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Avantor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Avantor's stock price.
Avantor Short Interest
An investor who is long Avantor may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Avantor and may potentially protect profits, hedge Avantor with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.853 | Short Percent 0.0559 | Short Ratio 2.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.1 M | 50 Day MA 11.5384 |
Avantor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Avantor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Avantor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Avantor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Avantor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Avantor Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
Avantor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avantor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avantor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avantor stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avantor's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avantor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.45. Avantor after-hype prediction price | USD 12.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantor to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Avantor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Avantor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Avantor trading at USD 12.24, that is roughly USD 0.006044 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Avantor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Avantor options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Avantor Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Avantor's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Avantor's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Avantor stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Avantor's open interest, investors have to compare it to Avantor's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Avantor is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Avantor. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Avantor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avantor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avantor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avantor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Avantor Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avantor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avantor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avantor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avantor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Avantor | Avantor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Avantor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avantor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avantor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.43 and 15.99, respectively. We have considered Avantor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avantor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avantor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0181 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2449 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0211 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.45 |
Predictive Modules for Avantor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avantor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avantor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avantor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avantor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avantor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avantor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avantor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avantor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avantor's historical news coverage. Avantor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.44 and 16.00, respectively. We have considered Avantor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avantor is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avantor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avantor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avantor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avantor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avantor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 3.78 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.24 | 12.22 | 0.16 |
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Avantor Hype Timeline
Avantor is presently traded for 12.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Avantor is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.22. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Avantor is about 548.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.43. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Avantor has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.13. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantor to cross-verify your projections.Avantor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avantor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avantor's future price movements. Getting to know how Avantor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avantor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MASI | Masimo | 0.25 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.06 | (2.71) | 10.00 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | 2.52 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.73 | (2.49) | 7.63 | |
| RGEN | Repligen | 0.82 | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.03 | 4.07 | (3.14) | 10.86 | |
| BAX | Baxter International | 0.17 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.82 | (3.63) | 15.34 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.31 | (2.90) | 8.48 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.18 | 11 per month | 1.07 | 0.13 | 2.43 | (1.97) | 13.60 | |
| STVN | Stevanato Group SpA | 0.30 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.70 | (4.31) | 12.60 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | 2.17 | 10 per month | 4.19 | (0.0009) | 3.97 | (4.52) | 19.99 | |
| GRFS | Grifols SA ADR | (0.06) | 37 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.17 | (3.19) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Avantor
For every potential investor in Avantor, whether a beginner or expert, Avantor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avantor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avantor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avantor's price trends.Avantor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avantor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avantor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avantor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avantor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avantor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avantor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avantor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avantor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Avantor Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avantor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avantor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avantor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Variance | 13.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Avantor
The number of cover stories for Avantor depends on current market conditions and Avantor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avantor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avantor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Avantor Short Properties
Avantor's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avantor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avantor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avantor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avantor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 681.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 261.9 M |
Additional Tools for Avantor Stock Analysis
When running Avantor's price analysis, check to measure Avantor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avantor is operating at the current time. Most of Avantor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avantor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avantor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avantor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.