Atlanticus Holdings Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ATLCP Preferred Stock  USD 24.60  0.07  0.28%   
Atlanticus Preferred Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Atlanticus Holdings' preferred stock price is slightly above 62. This suggests that the preferred stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Atlanticus, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Atlanticus Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Atlanticus Holdings Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Atlanticus Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Atlanticus Holdings Corp from the perspective of Atlanticus Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Atlanticus Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96.

Atlanticus Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.6  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atlanticus Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Atlanticus Preferred Stock, please use our How to Invest in Atlanticus Holdings guide.

Atlanticus Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Atlanticus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Atlanticus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Atlanticus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Atlanticus Holdings price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Atlanticus Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Atlanticus Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atlanticus Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atlanticus Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Atlanticus Holdings Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Atlanticus Holdings  Atlanticus Holdings Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Atlanticus Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Atlanticus Holdings' Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atlanticus Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.95 and 25.01, respectively. We have considered Atlanticus Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.60
24.48
Expected Value
25.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3576
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1306
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0055
SAESum of the absolute errors7.9644
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Atlanticus Holdings Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Atlanticus Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atlanticus Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atlanticus Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.0724.6025.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.0522.5827.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.7424.2424.75
Details

Atlanticus Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Atlanticus Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Atlanticus Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Atlanticus Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Atlanticus Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Atlanticus Holdings' preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Atlanticus Holdings' historical news coverage. Atlanticus Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.07 and 25.13, respectively. We have considered Atlanticus Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
24.60
24.60
After-hype Price
25.13
Upside
Atlanticus Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Atlanticus Holdings Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Atlanticus Holdings Preferred Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Atlanticus Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atlanticus Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Atlanticus Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.53
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.60
24.60
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Atlanticus Holdings Hype Timeline

Atlanticus Holdings Corp is presently traded for 24.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Atlanticus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Atlanticus Holdings is about 381.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.59. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.61. Atlanticus Holdings Corp last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atlanticus Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Atlanticus Preferred Stock, please use our How to Invest in Atlanticus Holdings guide.

Atlanticus Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Atlanticus Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Atlanticus Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Atlanticus Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Atlanticus Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Atlanticus Holdings

For every potential investor in Atlanticus, whether a beginner or expert, Atlanticus Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atlanticus Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atlanticus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atlanticus Holdings' price trends.

Atlanticus Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atlanticus Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atlanticus Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Atlanticus Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atlanticus Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atlanticus Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Atlanticus Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Atlanticus Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atlanticus Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atlanticus preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Atlanticus Holdings

The number of cover stories for Atlanticus Holdings depends on current market conditions and Atlanticus Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Atlanticus Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Atlanticus Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Atlanticus Holdings Short Properties

Atlanticus Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Atlanticus Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Atlanticus Holdings Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Atlanticus Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atlanticus Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments409.7 M

Additional Tools for Atlanticus Preferred Stock Analysis

When running Atlanticus Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Atlanticus Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atlanticus Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Atlanticus Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atlanticus Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atlanticus Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atlanticus Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.