Atlanticus Holdings Preferred Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

ATLCP Preferred Stock  USD 23.50  -0.30  -1.26%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Atlanticus Holdings Corp is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlanticus Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.23.When Atlanticus Holdings Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Atlanticus Holdings Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Atlanticus Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Atlanticus Holdings Corp are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Atlanticus Holdings works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlanticus Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.23 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atlanticus Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atlanticus Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Atlanticus Holdings  Atlanticus Holdings Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Atlanticus Holdings Corp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 22.92 and upside around 24.08 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
23.50
23.50
Expected Value
24.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atlanticus Holdings preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0015
MADMean absolute deviation0.1056
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0044
SAESum of the absolute errors6.23
When Atlanticus Holdings Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Atlanticus Holdings Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Atlanticus Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Atlanticus Holdings

Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Atlanticus needs to understand the dynamics of Atlanticus Holdings' price movement. Price charts for Atlanticus Preferred Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.

Atlanticus Holdings Related Equities

The following equities are related to Atlanticus Holdings within the Credit Services space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Atlanticus Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Atlanticus Holdings Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for Atlanticus Holdings enables investors to understand how the preferred stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Atlanticus Holdings Corp.

Atlanticus Holdings Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing Atlanticus Holdings' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Atlanticus Holdings' and decide how to manage it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Atlanticus Holdings

Coverage intensity for Atlanticus Holdings Corp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.

Atlanticus Holdings Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Atlanticus Holdings Corp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments409.7 M

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