Amtech Systems Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASYS Stock | USD 11.49 0.01 0.09% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amtech Systems. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amtech Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 11.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.81.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Amtech Systems forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Amtech Systems observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Amtech Systems is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amtech Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 11.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.79 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.81 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amtech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amtech Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amtech Systems | Amtech Systems Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Amtech Systems' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.39 and upside near 17.60.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amtech Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amtech Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0312 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0222 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5802 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.8123 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amtech Systems
Amtech Systems' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Amtech often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Amtech Systems Related Equities
Checking Amtech Systems against related firms within the Information Technology space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amtech Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Amtech Systems stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Amtech Systems.
Amtech Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amtech Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Amtech Systems' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 4.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.01 | |||
| Variance | 36.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 55.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 53.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amtech Systems
A coverage review of Amtech Systems shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Amtech Systems Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Amtech Systems matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.9 M |
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