Amtech Systems Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| ASYS Stock | USD 11.57 0.51 4.61% |
This reference page presents Polynomial Regression forecast data for Amtech Systems. The model output shown here is derived from Amtech Systems's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Amtech Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.56.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Amtech Systems historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression forecast data for Amtech Systems is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Amtech Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 12.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.26 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.56 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amtech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amtech Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amtech Systems | Amtech Systems Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Amtech Systems uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amtech Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amtech Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9247 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3043 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0962 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.5644 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amtech Systems
For every potential investor in Amtech, whether a beginner or expert, Amtech Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Amtech Systems Related Equities
The following equities are related to Amtech Systems within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Amtech Systems against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amtech Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amtech Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amtech Systems shares will generate the highest return on.
Amtech Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amtech Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amtech Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 4.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.14 | |||
| Variance | 37.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 58.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 55.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amtech Systems
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Amtech Systems can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Amtech Systems Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Amtech Systems can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.9 M |
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