APA Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| APA Stock | USD 36.61 0.74 2.06% |
This Simple Moving Average reference page for APA Corporation presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of APA Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 36.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.02.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of APA Corporation price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of APA. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All Simple Moving Average forecast figures shown for APA Corporation are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of APA Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 36.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.63 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.02 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest APA | APA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for APA Corporation uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 33.62 and upside around 38.86 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9785 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3197 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6444 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for APA
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether APA is a viable investment for any investor. APA Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.APA Related Equities
The following equities are related to APA within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing APA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
APA Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of APA stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading APA Corporation is most likely to be profitable.
APA Risk Indicators
The analysis of APA's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in APA's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Variance | 7.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for APA
A coverage review of APA Corporation helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
APA Short Properties
A short-interest review of APA Corporation helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 359 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 516 M |